본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

베이지안 네트워크를 활용한 치매 의심군 예측요인 연구

A Study on the Prediction of Questionable Dementia Using Bayesian Network

고은경|이난희|김동진|전효정|엄성혜
인지발달중재학회 (The Society for Cognitive Enhancement and Intervention)|2023.12|인지발달중재학회지 (Journal of cognitive Enhancement and Intervention)|제14권 제4호|pp. 193-220|DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.21197/JCEI.14.4.10

0

조회

0

다운로드

0

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

성인애착adult attachment초기부적응도식베이지안 네트워크주관적 기억저하치매두려움qustionable dementia sceeningsubjectiv memory Lossearly maladaptation schematicbaysian network
주제분류심리과학

초록

연구목적: 본 연구는 중․장년층의 치매 의심군 선별을 위하여 예측요인을 확인하고 중․장년층의 치매 예방과 조기 맞춤형 개입 방안을 마련하기 위한 기초자료를 제공하고자 한다. 연구방법: 전국에 거주하는 40∼65세 중․장년층 850명을 대상으로 설문조사를 실시하여 자료를 수집하고 베이지안 네트워크를 활용하여 치매 의심군을 선별하는 예측요인과 경로를 확인하였다. 연구결과: 첫째, 베이지안 네트워크 모델로 추출된 결과값의 정확성을 검증하기 위하여, 랜덤 포레스트, 그래디언트 부스팅과 성능을 비교하였으며 그 결과, 베이지안 네트워크 알고리즘의 성능이 가장 우수하였으며, 그 예측력은 90%로 나타났다. 둘째, 치매 의심군을 예측하는 변수 중 가장 예측력이 큰 변수는 주관적 기억저하이며, 다음으로 초기부적응도식, 사회적 편안함, 성인애착불안, 치매두려움, 성인애착회피 순으로 나타났다. 셋째, 치매 의심군을 나타내는 핵심적 경로는 신경증에서 초기부적응도식과 성인애착불안을 거쳐 치매 의심군으로 이어지는 경로이며, 다음으로 신경증에서 주관적 기억저하, 사회적 편안함, 성인애착불안을 거쳐 치매 의심군으로 이어지는 경로가 확인되었다. 결론: 베이지안 네트워크를 활용하여 치매 의심군의 중요변수와 변수 간 경로를 살펴봄으로써, 치매에 대한 조기개입 및 맞춤형 정책 마련을 위한 조망의 틀을 제공할 수 있을 것이다.

Abstract

Objective: This study aims to identify predictive factors for screening suspected dementia among middle-aged and older adults and provide basic data to prevent dementia and prepare early customized intervention plans for middle-aged and older adults. Method: A survey of 850 middle-aged and older adults aged 40-65 years living in Japan was conducted to collect data, and a Bayesian network was used to identify predictors and pathways for screening suspected dementia. Results: First, to verify the accuracy of the results extracted by the Bayesian network model, the performance was compared with random forest and gradient boosting, and the results showed that the Bayesian network algorithm performed the best, with a predictive power of 90%. Second, among the variables predicting suspected dementia, the most predictive variable was subjective memory decline, followed by early maladaptive behavior, social comfort, adult attachment anxiety, dementia fear, and adult attachment avoidance. Third, the core pathway for suspected dementia was identified as neuroticism to early maladaptive behavior and adult attachment anxiety to suspected dementia, followed by neuroticism to subjective memory decline, social comfort, and adult attachment anxiety to suspected dementia. Conclusion: By utilizing Bayesian networks to explore important variables and pathways between variables in suspected dementia, we can provide a framework for early intervention and customized policies for dementia.

참고문헌 (78)

  1. 강미애, "주관적 기억 장애와 경도 인지 장애의 신경인지기능 특성 비교", Annals of geriatric medicine and research, 18(1), pp.7~15 (2014), 대한노인병학회[DOI]
  2. 고은경, "잠재프로파일분석과 머신러닝을 활용한 한국 초등학교 1학년 아동의 학교적응 예측", 아동학회지, 41(4), pp.75~90 (2020), 한국아동학회[DOI]
  3. 권수혜, "시설입소 치매부모를 돌보는 자녀들의 경험", Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing, 44(1), pp.41~54 (2014), 한국간호과학회
  4. 서은현, "경도인지장애 전단계: 인지적변화에 대한 주관적 인식 단계", 한국노년학연구, 25(1), pp.67~79 (2016)
  5. 김전, "통증의 병태생리", 대한신경과학회지, 20(1), pp.1~7 (2002), 대한신경과학회
  6. 기계학습(Machine Learning)기반 사회보장 빅데이터 분석 및 예측모형연구, "오미애", 한국보건사회연구원, ~ (2017)
  7. 오병훈, "치매의 조기발견 및 위험인자관리", 임상노인의학회지, 9(3), pp.354~360 (2008)
  8. 오현수, "여성 관절염 환자의 건강증진과 삶의 질", Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing, 23(4), pp.617~630 (1993)
  9. 원경아, "조기발현 치매(초로기 치매)의 특징과 비약물적 접근법에 관한 연구동향 조사", 한국노인작업치료학회지, 2(1), pp.53~65 (2020)
  10. 이단비, "노인들의 사회관계적 요인이 치매선별검사 수검에 미치는 영향", 석사, pp.2019
  11. 이민경, "치매두려움 측정도구의 개발 및평가", 박사, pp.2017
  12. 이성남, "일 지역 치매의심 노인군에서 갑상선관련 호르몬, 인지기능, 우울증, 주관적 기억저하의 연관성", 생물정신의학, 21(4), pp.175~181 (2014), 대한생물정신의학회
  13. 장수정, "한국어판 치매에 대한 태도 측정도구의 타당도와 신뢰도", Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society, 22(2), pp.863~878 (2020), 한국자료분석학회
  14. 정진현, "노년기 인지기능과 정서가 주관적 기억 감퇴 호소에 미치는 영향", 한국노년학, 35(3), pp.835~851 (2015), 한국노년학회
  15. "이제는 치매가족돌아볼 때, 가족 지원 지속 확대" (2021)[URL]
  16. 중앙치매센터 연차보고서, "중앙치매센터", 중앙치매센터, ~ (2014)
  17. 국제치매정책동향 연차보고서, "중앙치매센터", 중앙치매센터, ~ (2020)
  18. Hélène Amieva, "What Aspects of Social Network Are Protective for Dementia? Not the Quantity But the Quality of Social Interactions Is Protective Up to 15 Years Later", Psychosomatic Medicine, 72(9), pp.905~911 (2010), Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)[DOI]
  19. T. Anttila, "Midlife income, occupation, APOE status, and dementia: a population-based study", Neurology, 59(6), pp.887~893 (2002), Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)[DOI]
  20. John Baranoff, "Factor structure and internal consistency of the Young Schema Questionnaire (Short Form) in Korean and Australian samples", Journal of Affective Disorders, 93(1-3), pp.133~140 (2006), Elsevier BV[DOI]
  21. Shari S. Bassuk, "Social Disengagement and Incident Cognitive Decline in Community-Dwelling Elderly Persons", Annals of Internal Medicine, 131(3), pp.165~ (1999), American College of Physicians[DOI]
  22. Sherry A. Beaudreau, "Late-Life Anxiety and Cognitive Impairment: A Review", The American Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry, 16(10), pp.790~803 (2008), Elsevier BV[DOI]
  23. Non-choice evaluations predict behavioral responses to changes in economic conditions, "Bernheim, B. D.", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.No. w19269 (2013)
  24. Brennan, K. A., "Self-report measurement of adult attachment : An integrative overview", Attachment theory and close relationships, 46, pp.76~ (1998)
  25. S. L. Brown, "The Gray Divorce Revolution: Rising Divorce Among Middle-Aged and Older Adults, 1990-2010", The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, 67(6), pp.731~741 (2012), Oxford University Press (OUP)[DOI]
  26. Inge Cantegreil-Kallen, "Fear of Alzheimer's disease in the French population: impact of age and proximity to the disease", International Psychogeriatrics, 24(1), pp.108~116 (2011), Cambridge University Press (CUP)[DOI]
  27. Cheng, J., "Learning Bayesian networks from data: An information-theory based approach", Artificial intelligence, 137(1-2), pp.43~90 (2002)
  28. Paul T. Costa, "Handbook of interpersonal psychology: Theory, research, assessment, and therapeutic interventions", pp.91~104 (2010)
  29. Michael Daffern, "The relationship between early maladaptive schema, psychopathic traits, and neuroticism in an offender sample", Clinical Psychologist, 20(3), pp.125~128 (2016), Informa UK Limited[DOI]
  30. Derouesné, C., "Memory complaints in 200 subjects meeting the diagnostic criteria for age-associated memory impairment:psychoaffective and cognitive correlates", Psychologie & Neuropsychiatrie du Vieillissement, 2(1), pp.67~74 (2004)
  31. Seonaid R. A. Dey, "A new method for the characterization and verification of local spatial predictability for convective‐scale ensembles", Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142(698), pp.1982~1996 (2016), Wiley[DOI]
  32. Doris S.F. Yu, "Unravelling positive aspects of caregiving in dementia: An integrative review of research literature", International Journal of Nursing Studies, 79, pp.1~26 (2018), Elsevier BV[DOI]
  33. Sabrina B. dos Santos, "Association of Lower Spiritual Well-Being, Social Support, Self-Esteem, Subjective Well-Being, Optimism and Hope Scores With Mild Cognitive Impairment and Mild Dementia", Frontiers in Psychology, 9 (2018), Frontiers Media SA[DOI]
  34. Alexandria R Ebert, "PERSONHOOD-BASED KNOWLEDGE: A NEW CONSTRUCT PREDICTING PERSONAL DEMENTIA FEAR", Innovation in Aging, 3(Supplement_1), pp.S467~S468 (2019), Oxford University Press (OUP)[DOI]
  35. Hamid bahramizadeh, "The Evaluation of Prediction Potential Neuroticism and Extraversion According to Early Maladaptive Schemas", Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 30, pp.524~529 (2011), Elsevier BV[DOI]
  36. Lea Ellwardt, "Does loneliness mediate the relation between social support and cognitive functioning in later life?", Social Science & Medicine, 98, pp.116~124 (2013), Elsevier BV[DOI]
  37. Eysenck H., "Personality and individual differences: A natural science approach" (1985), Plenum Press
  38. "Automated census record linking: A machine learning approach" (2016)[URL]
  39. Fernández-Blázquez, M. A., "Specific features of subjective cognitive decline predict faster conversion to mild cognitive impairment", Journal of Alzheimer's Disease, 52(1), pp.271~281 (2016)
  40. Fonseca, J. A. S., "Factors that predict cognitive decline in patients with subjective cognitive impairment", International Psychogeriatrics, 27(10), pp.1671~1677 (2015)
  41. E Furr, "EXAMINING PERSONALITY AND DEMENTIA WORRY AMONG MIDDLE-AGED AND OLDER ADULTS", Innovation in Aging, 2(suppl_1), pp.110~110 (2018), Oxford University Press (OUP)[DOI]
  42. Goldberg, L. R., "A broad-bandwidth, public domain, personality inventory measuring the lower-level facets of several five-factor models", Personality psychology in Europe, 7(1), pp.7~28 (1999)
  43. Tadahiro Goto, "Machine learning approaches for predicting disposition of asthma and COPD exacerbations in the ED", The American Journal of Emergency Medicine, 36(9), pp.1650~1654 (2018), Elsevier BV[DOI]
  44. Kathleen Cimbolic Gunthert, "The role of neuroticism in daily stress and coping.", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(5), pp.1087~1100 (1999), American Psychological Association (APA)[DOI]
  45. Hayslip Jr, B., "Fear of Alzheimer’s Disease in Middle to Late Adulthood: A Two Year Investigation of Change Versus Stability", Doctoral, pp.2013
  46. C. Helmer, "Marital status and risk of Alzheimer’s disease", Neurology, 53(9), pp.1953~1953 (1999), Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)[DOI]
  47. Hughes, A. J., "Self-efficacy as a longitudinal predictor of perceived cognitive impairment in individuals with multiple sclerosis", Archives of physical medicine and rehabilitation, 96(5), pp.913~919 (2015)
  48. 조상희, "치매파트너 간호학생의 치매에 대한지식과 태도에 관한 융합연구", 한국융합학회논문지, 9(7), pp.317~323 (2018), 한국융합학회[DOI]
  49. Philip John, "Does Self-Rated Health Predict Dementia?", Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry and Neurology, 26(1), pp.41~50 (2013), SAGE Publications[DOI]
  50. Onésimo Juncos‐Rabadán, "Prevalence and correlates of mild cognitive impairment in adults aged over 50 years with subjective cognitive complaints in primary care centers", Geriatrics & Gerontology International, 14(3), pp.667~673 (2013), Wiley[DOI]
  51. Kessler, E. M., "Dementia worry : A psychological examination of an unexplored phenomenon", European Journal of Ageing, 9(4), pp.275~284 (2012)
  52. Jae‐Min Kim, "Diagnosing dementia in a developing nation: an evaluation of the GMS‐AGECAT algorithm in an older Korean population", International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry, 18(4), pp.331~336 (2003), Wiley[DOI]
  53. Sarang Kim, "A qualitative study of older and middle‐aged adults' perception and attitudes towards dementia and dementia risk reduction", Journal of Advanced Nursing, 71(7), pp.1694~1703 (2015), Wiley[DOI]
  54. Hui Liu, "The Times They Are a Changin': Marital Status and Health Differentials from 1972 to 2003", Journal of Health and Social Behavior, 49(3), pp.239~253 (2008), SAGE Publications[DOI]
  55. Hui Liu, "Marital Status and Dementia: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study", The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, 75(8), pp.1783~1795 (2019), Oxford University Press (OUP)[DOI]
  56. Lee-Fay Low, "Does Personality Affect Risk for Dementia? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis", The American Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry, 21(8), pp.713~728 (2013), Elsevier BV[DOI]
  57. A. J. Mitchell, "Risk of dementia and mild cognitive impairment in older people with subjective memory complaints: meta-analysis", Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica, 130(6), pp.439~451 (2014), Wiley[DOI]
  58. Melissa L. O'Connor, "Development and Psychometric Validation of the Dementia Attitudes Scale", International Journal of Alzheimer's Disease, 2010, pp.1~10 (2010), Hindawi Limited[DOI]
  59. K. Palmer, "Predictors of progression from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer disease", Neurology, 68(19), pp.1596~1602 (2007), Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)[DOI]
  60. Hillary A. Parker, "Functional independence after acquired brain injury: Prospective effects of health self-efficacy and cognitive impairment.", Rehabilitation Psychology, 63(4), pp.595~603 (2018), American Psychological Association (APA)[DOI]
  61. Louise M. Reid, "Subjective Memory Complaints and Cognitive Impairment in Older People", Dementia and Geriatric Cognitive Disorders, 22(5-6), pp.471~485 (2006), S. Karger AG[DOI]
  62. Reiss, S., "Theoretical issues in behavior therapy" (1985), Academic Press
  63. Ritchie, K., "Mild cognitive impaiment : An epidemiological perspective. Dialogues Clin", Neurosci, 6, pp.401~408 (2004)[DOI]
  64. Roberts, A. L., "Association of adverse childhood experiences with poor neuropsychiatric health and dementia among former professional US football players", JAMA network open, 5(3), pp.e223299~e223299 (2022)[DOI]
  65. Jennifer R. Roberts, "A 2-Study Psychometric Evaluation of the Modified Dementia Worry Scale", American Journal of Alzheimer's Disease & Other Dementiasr, 36, pp.153331752199532~ (2021), SAGE Publications[DOI]
  66. Robinson, L., "Proactive approaches to identifying dementia and dementia risk; a qualitative study of public attitudes and preferences", BMJ open, 8(2), pp.e018677~ (2018)
  67. Walter A. Rocca, "Time, Sex, Gender, History, and Dementia", Alzheimer Disease & Associated Disorders, 31(1), pp.76~79 (2017), Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)[DOI]
  68. Rosenberg, P. B., "The association of neuropsychiatric symptoms in MCI with incident dementia and Alzheimer disease", The American Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry, 21(7), pp.685~695 (2013)
  69. "Estimating the dimension of a model. The annals of statistics" (1978)[URL]
  70. Mark Sherer, "The Self-Efficacy Scale: Construction and Validation", Psychological Reports, 51(2), pp.663~671 (1982), SAGE Publications[DOI]
  71. Sommerlad, A., "Marriage and risk of dementia : Systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies", Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery, and Psychiatry, 89, pp.231~238 (2018)
  72. Sundström, A., "Marital status and risk of dementia: A nationwide population-based prospective study from Sweden", BMJ Open, 6, pp.e008565~ (2016)
  73. Tandetnik, C., "Influence of early maladaptive schemas, depression, and anxiety on the intensity of self-reported cognitive complaint in older adults with subjective cognitive decline", International psychogeriatrics, 29(10), pp.1657~1667 (2017)
  74. Antonio Terracciano, "Personality traits and risk of cognitive impairment and dementia", Journal of Psychiatric Research, 89, pp.22~27 (2017), Elsevier BV[DOI]
  75. Francisco A.C. Vale, "Memory complaint scale (MCS): Proposed tool for active systematic search", Dementia & Neuropsychologia, 6(4), pp.212~218 (2012), FapUNIFESP (SciELO)[DOI]
  76. Lies Van Assche, "Attachment in old age: Theoretical assumptions, empirical findings and implications for clinical practice", Clinical Psychology Review, 33(1), pp.67~81 (2013), Elsevier BV[DOI]
  77. H.-X. Wang, "Late-Life Engagement in Social and Leisure Activities Is Associated with a Decreased Risk of Dementia: A Longitudinal Study from the Kungsholmen Project", American Journal of Epidemiology, 155(12), pp.1081~1087 (2002), Oxford University Press (OUP)[DOI]
  78. "Throwing like a girl and other essays in feminist philosophy and social theory" (1990)[URL]

관련 논문AI추천

제한된 볼츠만 기계학습 알고리즘을 이용한 우리나라 지역사회 노인의 경도인지장애 예측모형변해원중소기업융합학회 · 융합정보논문지2019 · 제9권 제8호주관적 인지 저하 호소 정도의 진단적 유용성 탐색김가영, 노은정, 이원혜, 임선진, 주채린, 한주현한국임상심리학회 · 한국심리학회지: 임상심리 연구와 실제2024 · 제10권 제1호노인들의 주관적 기억문제 호소와 객관적인 인지 기능의 연관성 -Normal, Mild Cognitive Impairment, Dementia 군의 비교를 중심으로백종우, 송지영, 이성애, 이원혜한국임상심리학회 · Korean Journal of Clinical Psychology2011 · 제30권 제1호노인의 주관적 기억 장애의 특징 및 하위 유형나덕렬, 서상원, 신희영, 오경자, 진주희대한치매학회 · Dementia and Neurocognitive Disorders(대한치매학회지)2010 · 제9권 제4호노년기 인지기능 변화궤적과 관련 요인: 잠재성장모형의 적용백옥미사회과학연구소 · 지역과 세계2015 · 제39권 제3호지역사회 치매노인의 치매예방관리에 관한 구조화 분석: 제3차 치매관리종합계획을 중심으로박지은, 유근환, 장광현, 최인규성균관대학교 국정전문대학원 · 국정관리연구2018 · 제13권 제4호

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (9건)

유아의 질문을 통한 문제해결 능력의 발달과 실행기능의 관계정지인, 김상아pp. 1-18어머니 문지기 역할 척도 개발 및 타당화 연구: 영유아기 자녀를 둔 부모의 지각 차이를 중심으로안정신, 박진진pp. 19-38또래괴롭힘 가해 및 피해 심각성과 공감적 분노 및 슬픔 간의 관계와공감적 분노 및 슬픔의 또래괴롭힘 방어행동에 대한 영향김나현, 김희화pp. 39-58초등학교 통합학급 교사의 통합교육 경험에 대한 질적 메타분석조경진pp. 59-81청소년기 학습무동기 변화 유형화와 사회적 영향요인 분석권다영, 강승희pp. 83-103
원문 보기