본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

DRIVERS OF PRIVATE SAVING IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES

0

조회

0

다운로드

0

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

주제분류경제학

초록

We utilize both the first-difference and the System GMM to estimate a dynamic private saving function for 39 Sub-Saharan African Countries. Parsimonious results show that the private saving rate is persistent; urbanization ratio, youth dependency ratio, elder dependency ratio, per capita income growth, terms of trade growth, public saving rate, general government consumption, real interest rate, credit to private sector, inflation and current account deficit exert a significant influence on the private saving rate. Apart from showing that the economic policy framework should take into account the persistent nature of the private saving rate, there are other policy insights from the estimation of the private saving model. There is especially the need to pursue growth-enhancing policies, to broaden the tax base, to implement trade-enhancing polices, to improve the functioning of the financial system and to design polices for prudent management of domestic resources in order to reduce current account deficits.

Abstract

We utilize both the first-difference and the System GMM to estimate a dynamic private saving function for 39 Sub-Saharan African Countries. Parsimonious results show that the private saving rate is persistent; urbanization ratio, youth dependency ratio, elder dependency ratio, per capita income growth, terms of trade growth, public saving rate, general government consumption, real interest rate, credit to private sector, inflation and current account deficit exert a significant influence on the private saving rate. Apart from showing that the economic policy framework should take into account the persistent nature of the private saving rate, there are other policy insights from the estimation of the private saving model. There is especially the need to pursue growth-enhancing policies, to broaden the tax base, to implement trade-enhancing polices, to improve the functioning of the financial system and to design polices for prudent management of domestic resources in order to reduce current account deficits.

참고문헌 (85)

  1. Alvarez-Cuadrado, F, "The Relative Income Hypothesis", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35, pp.1489~1501 (2011)
  2. Anderson, T, "Formulation and Estimation of Dynamic Models Using Panel Data", Journal of Econometrics, 18, pp.47~82 (1982)
  3. Arellano, M, "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error Component Models", Journal of Econometrics, 68, pp.29~51 (1995)
  4. Arellano, M, "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data : Monte Carlo Evidence and Application to Employment Equations", Review of Economic Studies, 58, pp.277~297 (1991)
  5. Athukorala, P, "The Determinants of Private Saving in India", World Development, 32(3), pp.491~503 (2004)
  6. Barro, R, "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth", Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), pp.1095~1117 (1974)
  7. Barro, R, "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits", The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(2), pp.37~54 (1989)
  8. Blundell, R, "Dynamic Panel Data Methods and Practice", Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv, 86(2), pp.145~162 (2002)
  9. Blundell, R, "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Models", Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), pp.115~143 (1998)
  10. Bosworth, B. P, "Saving and Investment in a Global Economy" (1993), Brookings Institution
  11. Carroll, C. D, "The Buffer Stock Theory of Saving : Some Macroeconomic Evidence", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, pp.61~135 (1992)
  12. Carroll, C. D, "Buffer-Stock Saving and Life-Cycle", Permanent Income Hypothesis, 1997, pp.112(1), 1~55
  13. Carroll, C. D, "National Saving and Economic Performance" (1991), University Press
  14. Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates : Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence, "Campbell, J. Y", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.NBER Working Paper, 2924 (1989)
  15. Chenery, H. B, "Foreign Assistance and Economic Development", American Economic Review, 55, pp.679~733 (1966)
  16. Choi, I, "Unit Root Tests for Panel Data", Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, pp.249~272 (2001)
  17. Collins, S. M, "National Saving and Economic Performance" (1991), University of Chicago Press
  18. Corbo, V, "Public Policies and Saving in Developing Countries", Journal of Development Economics, 36, pp.89~115 (1991)
  19. Corbo, V, "National Saving and Economic Performance" (1991), University of Chicago Press
  20. Deaton, A. S, "Evaluating the Reliability of Macroeconomic Models" (1982), John Wiley
  21. Deaton, A. S, "Saving and Liquidity Constraints", Econometrica, 59(5), pp.1221~1248 (1991)
  22. Deaton, A. S, "Understanding Consumption" (1992), Clarendon Press
  23. Deaton, A. S, "Research Programme in Development Studies" (1995), Princeton University
  24. Deaton, A. S, "Measuring Poverty in a Growing World or Measuring Growth in Poor World", Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(1), pp.1~19 (2005)
  25. Duesenberry, J. S, "Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior" (1949), Harvard University Press
  26. Edwards, S, "Why are Latin America’s Saving Rates so low? An International Comparative Analysis", Paper Presented at the Seventh Inter American Seminar in Economics (IASE) (1994)
  27. Why are Saving Rates So Different across Countries? An International Comparative Analysis, "Edwards, S", NBER, ~, pp.NBER Working Paper, 5097 (1995)
  28. Elbadawi, I. A, "Can Africa’s Saving Collapse Be Reversed?", The World Bank Economic Review, 14(3), pp.415~443 (2000)
  29. Ersado L, "Changes in Consumption and Saving Behaviour Before and after Economic Shocks: Evidence from Zimbabwe", Economic Development and Cultural Change, 52(1), pp.187~215 (2003)
  30. Saving Behaviour and Global Imbalances, "Ferrucci, G", European Central Bank, ~, pp.European Central Bank Working Paper Series, 842 (2007)
  31. Flavin, M. A, "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income", Journal of Political Economy, 89(5), pp.1020~1037 (1981)
  32. Friedman, M, "A Theory of the Consumption Function" (1957), Princetown University Press
  33. Fry, M. J, "Money and Capital or Financial Deepening in Economic Development", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 10, pp.464~475 (1978)
  34. Fry, M. J, "Saving, Investment, Growth, and the Cost of Financial Repression", World Development, 8(4), pp.317~327 (1980)
  35. Fry, M. J, "Money Interest Rate and Banking Development" (1995), John Hopkins University Press
  36. Giovannini, A, "The Interest Elasticity of Savings in Developing Countries : The Existing Evidence", World Development, 11(7), pp.601~607 (1983)
  37. Giovannini, A, "Saving and the Real Interest Interest Rate in LDCs", Journal of Development Economics, 18, pp.197~217 (1985)
  38. Gourinchas, P, "Consumption over Life-Cycle", Econometrica, 70(1), pp.47~89 (2002)
  39. Gupta, K. L, "Aggregate Savings, Financial Intermediation, and Interest Rate", Review of Economics and Statistics, 69(2), pp.303~311 (1987)
  40. Haque, N. U, "Consumption in Developing Countries : Tests for Liquidity Constraints and Finite Horizons", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71(3), pp.408~415 (1989)
  41. Hall, R. E, "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis", Journal of Political Economy, 86(6), pp.971~987 (1978)
  42. Harberger, A, "Currency Depreciation, Income and Balance of Trade", Journal of Political Economy, 58, pp.47~60 (1950)
  43. Saving Transitions in South East Asia, "Harrigan, F", EDRC, ~, pp.EDRC Report Series, 64 (1995)
  44. Hayashi, F, "The Permanent Income Hypothesis and Consumption Durability : Analysis Based on Japanese Panel Data", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100(4), pp.1083~1113 (1985)
  45. Hayashi, F, "The Effect of Liquidity Constraints on Consumption : A Cross-Section Analysis", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100(1), pp.183~206 (1985)
  46. International Monetary Fund, "World Economic Outlook Data Base", ~ (2015)
  47. Japelli, T, "Saving, Growth and Liquidity Constraints", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109, pp.83~109 (1994)
  48. Keynes, J. M, "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" (1936), Macmillan
  49. Laursen, S, "Flexible Exchange Rates and the Theory of Employment", Review of Economics and Statistics, 32, pp.281~199 (1950)
  50. Leff, N. H, "Dependency Rates and Saving Rates", American Economic Review, 59(5), pp.886~896 (1969)
  51. Lehmussaari, O. P, "Deregulation and Consumption : Saving Dynamics in the Nordic Countries", International Monetary Fund, 37(1), pp.71~93 (1990)
  52. Loayza, N, "Private Saving in India", World Bank Economic Review, 14(3), pp.571~594 (2000)
  53. What Drives Private Saving across the World?, "Loayza, N", Central bank of Chile, ~, pp.Central bank of Chile Working Papers, 47 (1999)
  54. Loayza, N, "Saving in Developing Countries: An Overview", The World Bank Economic Review, 14(3), pp.393~414 (2000)
  55. Maddala, G. S, "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, pp.631~652 (1999)
  56. Mankiw, N. G, "Macroeconomics" (2010), Worth Publishers
  57. Masson, P.R, "The Dynamics of a Two-Country Minimodel under Rational Expectations", Annales d’ Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, 6-7, ~ (1987)
  58. Masson, P. R, "Strategies for Modeling Exchange Rates and Capital Flows in Multi-Country Models", Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, 10(2), pp.2005~2028 (1988)
  59. Masson, P.R, "International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving", World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), pp.483~501 (1998), Oxford University Press
  60. McKinnon, R. I, "Money and Capital in Economic Development" (1973), Brookings Institution
  61. Miller, H. L, "On the Theory of Consumer Durables", Southern Economic Journal, 27(4), pp.298~304 (1961)
  62. Modigliani, F, "Induction, Growth and Trade" (1970), Clarendon Press
  63. Modigliani, F, "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers and Life-Cycle Saving in the Accumulation of Wealth", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2(2), pp.15~20 (1998)
  64. Modigliani, F, "The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving : Aggregate Implications and Taste", American Economic Review, 53(1), pp.55~84 (1983)
  65. Mwega, F. M, "Saving in Sub-Saharan Africa : A Comparative Analysis", Journal of African Economies, 6(3), pp.199~228 (1997)
  66. Real Interest Rates and the Mobilization of Private Savings in Africa: A Case Study of Kenya, "Mwega, F. M", African Economic Research Consortium, ~, pp.African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) Research Paper, 2 (1990)
  67. Nwachukwu, T. E, "An Error-Correction Model of the Determinantsof Private Saving in Nigeria", Paper Presented at the African Economic Society (AES) Conference (2007)
  68. O’ Driscoll, G, "The Ricardian Non-equivalence Theorem", Journal of Political Economy, 8(2), pp.207~210 (1977)
  69. Oshikoya, T. W, "Interest Liberalisation, Savings, Investment and Growth : TheCase of Kenya", Saving and Development, 16(3), pp.305~320 (1992)
  70. Ostry J. D, "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks : Evidence from Developing Countries", IMF Staff Papers, 39(3), pp.495~517 (1992), Palgrave McMillan Journals
  71. Raut, L. K, "Determinants of Consumption and Savings Behaviour in Developing Countries", The World Bank Economic Review, 3(3), pp.379~393 (1989)
  72. 이우헌, "Habit Formation and Precautionary Saving: Evidence from the Korean Household Panel Studies", Journal of Economic Development, 29(2), pp.1~20 (2004), 경제연구소
  73. Romer, D, "Advanced Macroeconomics" (1996), McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc
  74. Schmidt-Hebbel, K, "Saving and Investment : Paradigms, Puzzles, Policies", The World Bank Research Observer, 11(1), pp.87~117 (1996)
  75. Schmidt-Hebbel, K, "Household Saving in Developing Countries", World Bank Economic Review, 6(3), pp.529~547 (1992)
  76. Schrooten, M, "Private Savings and Transition : Dynamic Panel Data Evidence from Accession Countries", Economic of Transition, 13(2), pp.287~309 (2005)
  77. Seater, J, "Ricardian Equivalence", Journal of Economic Literature, 31, pp.142~190 (1993)
  78. Serres, de A, "The Decline in Private Saving Rates in the 1990s in OECD Countries: How Much can be explained by Non-Wealth Determinants?", OECD Economic Studies, 36(1), pp.117~150 (2003)
  79. Shaw, E, "Financial Deepening in Economic Development" (1973), Oxford University Press
  80. Ken Chamuva Shawa, "Private Investment In Sub-Saharan Africa: a Dynamic Panel Approach", Journal of Economic Research (JER), 17(3), pp.247~281 (2012), 경제연구소
  81. Skinner, J, "Risky Income, Life Cycle Consumption or Precautionary Saving", Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(2), pp.237~255 (1988), Elsevier
  82. Tobin, J, "Ten Economic Studies in the Tradition of Irvin Fisher", pp.231~256 (1967), Wiley Press
  83. World Bank, "The East Asian Miracle : Economic Growth and Public Policy" (1993), Oxford University Press
  84. World Bank, "The Complete World Development Indicators:1978-2009" (2009), World Bank
  85. Zeldes, S. P, "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints : An Empirical Investigation", Journal of Political Economy, 97(2), pp.305~346 (1989), University of Chicago Press

관련 논문AI추천

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (4건)