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Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Economic Activity in Developing Countries: Theory and Evidence

Magda Kandil
경제연구소 (Hanyang Economic Research Institute)|2004.06|Journal of Economic Development|제29권 제1호|pp. 85-108

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참고문헌

주제분류경제학

초록

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output growth and price inflation in a sample of twenty-two developing countries. The analysis introduces a theoretical rational expectation model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. The model demonstrates the effects of demand and supply channels on the output and price responses to changes in the exchange rate. In general, exchange rate depreciation, both anticipated and unanticipated, decreases real output growth and increases price inflation. The evidence confirms concerns about the negative effects of currency depreciation on economic performance in developing countries.

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