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Has the Phillips Curve Flattened in South Korea?

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주제분류경제학

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This paper investigates the relationship between unemployment and inflation rates in South Korea. In particular, we apply a methodology recently developed by Hazell et al. (2022) to estimate both aggregate and regional Phillips curves based on price indices for non-tradable items and unemployment data for 16 first-tier administrative divisions in South Korea. We find that the estimated slope of the Phillips curve was small during 1992-2018 and became flattened since the mid-2000s. Controlling for time-fixed effects, however, weakens the magnitudes and statistical significance of overall estimates.

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between unemployment and inflation rates in South Korea. In particular, we apply a methodology recently developed by Hazell et al. (2022) to estimate both aggregate and regional Phillips curves based on price indices for non-tradable items and unemployment data for 16 first-tier administrative divisions in South Korea. We find that the estimated slope of the Phillips curve was small during 1992-2018 and became flattened since the mid-2000s. Controlling for time-fixed effects, however, weakens the magnitudes and statistical significance of overall estimates.

참고문헌 (14)

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  3. Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?, "Bartik, T. J.", WE Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, ~ (1991)
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  5. Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation? Evidence from US Cities, "Fitzgerald, T. J.", Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, ~ (2014)
  6. Hazell, J., "The Slope of the Phillips Curve : Evidence from U. S. States", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 137(3), pp.1299~1344 (2022)
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  8. 정규철, "Korea’s Inflation Expectations with regard to the Phillips Curve and Implications of the COVID-19 Crisis", KDI Journal of Economic Policy, 43(2), pp.81~101 (2021), 한국개발연구원[DOI]
  9. 어윤종, "구조벡터모형으로 살펴본 코로나19 이후 인플레이션의 원인", 시장경제연구, 51(3), pp.31~55 (2022), 지암남덕우경제연구원[DOI]
  10. 장용성, "생산, 고용, 물가 관계의 변화", 경제학연구, 70(1), pp.33~51 (2022), 한국경제학회[DOI]
  11. Mavroeidis, S., "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve", Journal of Economic Literature, 52, pp.124~188 (2014)
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  14. Estimation of the Phillips curve using regional data, "Song, S. -y.", BOK, 1~12, pp.BOK issue note, 2022-47 (2022)

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