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동북아 석유선물시장의 가격 변동성 정보 흐름 -일본 동경공업품거래소 석유선물계약을 중심으로-

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주제분류일본어와문학

초록

The analysis on information transmission of price and price volatility among petroleum futures markets of Japan, China, and the United States using bivariate AR-ARCH models shows the following results. First, NYMEX crude oil futures market has a dominant position over the other petroleum futures markets in terms of price and price volatility information flow. Second, TOCOM petroleum futures market has been playing its role as a price-setter in Asia and it's been exchanging price information quite briskly with the overseas petroleum markets. Nonetheless, any price volatility information feedback has not been made among TOCOM, SHFE, and NYMEX markets.

Abstract

The analysis on information transmission of price and price volatility among petroleum futures markets of Japan, China, and the United States using bivariate AR-ARCH models shows the following results. First, NYMEX crude oil futures market has a dominant position over the other petroleum futures markets in terms of price and price volatility information flow. Second, TOCOM petroleum futures market has been playing its role as a price-setter in Asia and it's been exchanging price information quite briskly with the overseas petroleum markets. Nonetheless, any price volatility information feedback has not been made among TOCOM, SHFE, and NYMEX markets.

참고문헌 (8)

  1. 김창수, "중국 중유 선물시장의 효율성 분석", 동북아경제연구, 17(3), pp.89~116 (2005), 한국동북아경제학회
  2. 김창수, "일본 석유산업의 규제완화와 석유현?선물시장의 효율성 분석", 경제연구, 25(1), pp.265~284 (2007), 한국경제통상학회
  3. 김은영, "시카고상품거래소와 대련상품거래소 옥수수 선물가격 간 정보흐름 분석", 농촌경제, 30(3), pp.87~106 (2007), 한국농촌경제연구원
  4. 김은영, "중국 옥수수 선물시장의 가격정보 효율성 분석", 동북아경제연구, 19(3), pp.1~22 (2007), 한국동북아경제학회
  5. 윤병삼, "일본 옥수수 선물시장의 불편성에 대한 검정", 농업경제연구, 45(2), pp.211~233 (2004), 한국농업경제학회
  6. Engle, Robert F., "Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing", Econometrica, 55, pp.251~276 (1987)
  7. Fung, Hung_Gay, "Information Flows between the US and China Commodity Futures Trading", Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 21, pp.267~285 (2003)
  8. Ross, Stephen A., "Information and Volatility: The No-Arbitrage Martingale Approach to Timing and Resolution Irrelevancy", Journal of Finance, 44, pp.1~17 (1989)

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