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A Comparative Analysis of Stagnation Hypothesises of Pre-modern China

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This paper analyzes and compares the several well-known stagnation hypothesis interpreting the stagnation factors of pre-modern China. The stagnation hypothesis analyzed here are as such: Needham’s bureaucratic system model, Elvin’s high-level equilibrium trap model, Chao’s population-trap model, Lippit’s surplus-extraction model, Jones’ state’s behavior model, Lin’s unproductive elites trap model, and Little’s strategy and policy failure model. Needham, as a renowned sinologist, presented puzzles named Needham’s Puzzles, which was not only for his own but for every sinologists. Needham’s Puzzles as follow: “Why pre-modern China had shown world best civilization for several centuries,” “Why China had failed in meeting scientific revolution era after 16th centuty?” And the above mentioned hypothesis are the results of endeavor to solve the puzzles. The hypothesis applied to presenting the poor economic performance after building of PRC, economic miracles after the beginning of reform and open-door policy, and the economic development of East Asian NIEs also. Although much efforts to solve the Needham Puzzles has been made by sinologists, dominating hypothesis has not yet showed up. Each hypothesis has its own both persuasive power and shortcomings. In short, to meet a persuasive stagnation hypothesis, we need to wait much more time and soil and toil of creative researchers.

Abstract

This paper analyzes and compares the several well-known stagnation hypothesis interpreting the stagnation factors of pre-modern China. The stagnation hypothesis analyzed here are as such: Needham’s bureaucratic system model, Elvin’s high-level equilibrium trap model, Chao’s population-trap model, Lippit’s surplus-extraction model, Jones’ state’s behavior model, Lin’s unproductive elites trap model, and Little’s strategy and policy failure model. Needham, as a renowned sinologist, presented puzzles named Needham’s Puzzles, which was not only for his own but for every sinologists. Needham’s Puzzles as follow: “Why pre-modern China had shown world best civilization for several centuries,” “Why China had failed in meeting scientific revolution era after 16th centuty?” And the above mentioned hypothesis are the results of endeavor to solve the puzzles. The hypothesis applied to presenting the poor economic performance after building of PRC, economic miracles after the beginning of reform and open-door policy, and the economic development of East Asian NIEs also. Although much efforts to solve the Needham Puzzles has been made by sinologists, dominating hypothesis has not yet showed up. Each hypothesis has its own both persuasive power and shortcomings. In short, to meet a persuasive stagnation hypothesis, we need to wait much more time and soil and toil of creative researchers.

참고문헌 (15)

  1. Chao, Kang, "Man and Land in Chinese History" (1986), Stanford University Press
  2. Elvin,Mark, "The Pattern of the Chinese Past" (1973), Stanford University Press
  3. Fairbank, J.K., "신중국사" (1994), 까치
  4. Jones, E. L., "The European Miracle: Environments, Economies and Geopolitics-the History ofEuropeand Asia" (1981), Cambridge University Press
  5. Needham Puzzle,WeberQuestion and China’s Miracle: Long Term Performancesince theSung Dynasty, "Lin, Justin Yifu", Peking University, ~, pp.CCER,Working Paper Series No. E2006017 (2006)
  6. Lin, Justin Yifu, "The Needham Puzzle: Why the Industrial Revolution did not Originate in China", Economic Development and Cultural Change, 43(2) (1995)
  7. Lippit, Victor D., "The Development of Underd evelopment in China", Modern China, 4 (1978)
  8. Lippit,Victor D., "The Economic Development of China" (1987), Sharpe
  9. Little, Daniel, "Development Traps in Traditional and Modern China,”in Culture, Politics, and Economic Growth:Experiencesin EastAsia" (1994), Studiesin ThirdWorld Societies
  10. Needham, J., "Introduction" (1986), Patrick Stephens
  11. Needham, J., "The Grand Titration: Science and Society in East and West" (1969), Allen & Unwin
  12. Qian, Wen-yuan, "The Great Inertia: Scientific Stagnation in Traditional China" (1985), Croom Helm
  13. 林毅夫, "「李约瑟之迷,韋伯疑問和中國的奇迹:自宋以來的長期經濟發展」,北京大學中國經濟硏究中心討論稿系列 NoE2006019(2006.10.11)", ~ (2006)
  14. 蔡昉, "中國經濟" (2002), 中國財政經濟出版社
  15. "*Lin(1995,2006); Lippit(1978); Little(1994)은 하이빔(www.highbeam.com)제공 자료임", ~

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