증권화(securitization)와 서브프라임 위기
Securitization and Subprime Loan Crisis
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이 글은 전 세계적으로 충격을 주고 있는 서브프라임 모기지 위기를 증권화(securitization)라는 금융혁신을 중심으로 살펴보는 것을 목적으로 한다. 증권화가 금융시장의 효율성을 증대시키고 채무자와 채권자 모두에게 유익하다는 주류경제학적인 시각에 반대하여, 오히려 증권화가 서브프라임 모기지 위기의 원인과 밀접하게 연관됐다고 주장한다. 서브프라임 모기지 위기는 ① 1990년대 이후 미국과 여타 세계 간의 자금순환의 불균형과 ② 1980년대 이후 미국 내 중산층의 붕괴와 소득분배구조의 불균형이라는 두 개의 구조적인 불균형이 발현된 것이라고 해석할 수 있다. 중산층의 붕괴와 소득분배의 불균등성은 생계형 차입의 필요성을 증가시켰으며, 1980년대 이후 고리대금지법의 폐지와 1995년부터 개인신용평가기법의 주택담보대출에의 적용은 이전에 신용 접근이 제한당한 계층에 대한 대출을 증대시킬 수 있게 했다. 과잉유동성 상태의 세계자본시장에 미국의 주택금융시장을 접합시킨 증권화는 주택가격의 상승과 금융시장 주요 행위자들의 낙관적 기대를 토대로 한 집단행동을 초래하여 서브프라임 모기지 시장으로 급속히 유동성을 끌어들이는 기능을 했고 그 결과 서브프라임 모기지 대출의 급격한 팽창과 부실을 발생시켰다. 증권화율이 증대된 지역일수록 더 급속하게 서브프라임 모기지 발행량이 증가했다는 회귀분석의 결과와 가계의 부채자산구조의 불균형과 대외자금순환상의 불균형을 보여주는 자금순환계정 데이터가 이런 주장을 뒷받침하는 근거로 사용됐다.
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to explain current subprime mortgage crisis with the regard to the securitization which is known as financial innovation. Contrary to the mainstream financial economist’s idea that the securitization would improve the efficiency in the financial market and benefit both lenders and borrowers, I insist that this financial innovation is one of the major factors causing current crisis. In this paper, I show that two structural imbalances gave rise to subprime mortgage crisis; (1) the imbalance in the flow of funds between the U.S. and the other world since 1990s, (2) the imbalance in income distribution, which is associated with the fragility of middle or low income class since 1980s. The financial pressure since 1980s on the middle or low income class has made them increase the needs to borrow from financial institutions, which could be realized by the preemption of the state usury law in 1980 and the application of the individual credit rating technology to the mortgage industry in 1995. The securitization, as a financial instrument which combine the U.S. mortgage financial market with world financial market containing huge liquidity, led the world financial investors to inject large liquidity into the U.S. subpirme mortgage market, and resulting subprime mortgage boom and current crisis. In addition to the regression results that the rapid expansion in subprime mortgage lending was fueled by high growth in the securitization, the data extracted from the flow of funds accounts revealing the imbalance in households’ asset and liability position and the imbalance in the funds flow between the U.S and foreign are used to support my argument in this paper.
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