Selective Migration of Customers and the Value of Early Adopters
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It is generally perceived that the early adopters of new telecommunication services spend more than the average customer. With a behavioral justification and an empirical support for this belief, we present a brief method to mitigate the sample selection bias. Our experiment shows that the traditional approach to forecasting market revenue could substantially underestimate the initial profitability of the new services, and so distort the optimal allocation of marketing resources over time.
Abstract
It is generally perceived that the early adopters of new telecommunication services spend more than the average customer. With a behavioral justification and an empirical support for this belief, we present a brief method to mitigate the sample selection bias. Our experiment shows that the traditional approach to forecasting market revenue could substantially underestimate the initial profitability of the new services, and so distort the optimal allocation of marketing resources over time.