Developing an Integrated Approach Toward Ballistic Missile Proliferation

Abstract

Ballistic missile proliferation remains a serious threat to regional securityand stability. While the post-Cold War era has seen a steady decline in thetotal number of long-range ballistic missiles, the few countries with activeballistic missile programs tend to concentrate in regions of ongoing andlatent conflicts and are themselves either de facto or aspiring nuclearweapon states. Past efforts at stemming ballistic missile proliferationthrough technology denial and controls, such as the Missile TechnologyControl Regime (MTCR), have achieved notable success. However, withcontinuing spread and maturation of missile technologies and the emergenceof indigenous capabilities, strategies based solely on export controls must besupplemented by efforts at developing norms for restraints in ballistic missileprocurement and use. This article reviews and evaluates the various normsbuilding initiatives such as the HCoC, GCS, and UNGEP and suggeststhat an integrated approach should be developed that addresses both thedemand and supply factors in missile proliferation. Such an approachwould ideally be holistic in conceptualization and synergetic in execution atthe domestic, regional, multilateral, and global levels through transparencyand confidence building, as well as denial strategies that raise the cost, delay,and ultimately prevents the acquisitions of longer-range ballistic missiles.