Solving and Resolving the East China Sea Dispute: Beijing’s Options

Abstract

In early 2005, the East China Sea (ECS)became a hotly-disputed area—mainly between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Japan—especially in view of the fact that in August 2005, for the first time in history, the price of light, sweet crude oil futures for October 2005 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crossed the US$70 per barrel mark. This paper explores what Beijing would likely do to solve or resolve its dispute with Tokyo, if not Taipei as well. It suggests, as a first step, the creation of a series of either international or bicoastal regimes, including between mainland China and Taiwan, which should be able to reduce tension between all the parties. By examining the PRC’s past words and deeds, the author has inductively pointed out options that mainland China can choose from to handle the dispute, such as dragging on as well as making compromises or adopting a fifty-fifty formula. Arguably, the PRC will try to solve or resolve the dispute in a peaceful way. In other words, it may first provoke, but not by firing the first shot. The Chinese Communist leaders are still adhering to their “paramount leader,” Deng Xiaoping’s strategy of peace and development. In short, Beijing may have to make some concessions to Japan and/or Taipei for the sake of all concerned.