When Economic Interdependence Meets Power Politics: Predicting the Direction of East Asian Regionalism in Asia’s Paradox
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Because of rapid economic growth and close economic interdependence, EastAsia has recently been in the spotlight of regional integration theorists. Currently,East Asia is being remapped in two ways: one is the Regional ComprehensiveEconomic Partnership (RCEP); and the other is the Trans-Pacific Strategic EconomicPartnership (TPP). This article aims at predicting the winner of inter-institutionalbalancing between the two tracks from a viewpoint of power politics. To do so,realist hypotheses are made of regional integration and they are tested against theIntegration Achievement Score (IAS) data. As a result, newly suggested hypothesesand some conventional ideas are strongly supported. These findings hold, regardlessof model specifications and measurement of variables. Next, after analyzing howmuch the RCEP and the TPP accord with those findings, probabilities are presentedshowing that the two tracks can achieve regional economic integration. In conclusion,the TPP is expected to become the winner of inter-institutional balancing.
Abstract
Because of rapid economic growth and close economic interdependence, EastAsia has recently been in the spotlight of regional integration theorists. Currently,East Asia is being remapped in two ways: one is the Regional ComprehensiveEconomic Partnership (RCEP); and the other is the Trans-Pacific Strategic EconomicPartnership (TPP). This article aims at predicting the winner of inter-institutionalbalancing between the two tracks from a viewpoint of power politics. To do so,realist hypotheses are made of regional integration and they are tested against theIntegration Achievement Score (IAS) data. As a result, newly suggested hypothesesand some conventional ideas are strongly supported. These findings hold, regardlessof model specifications and measurement of variables. Next, after analyzing howmuch the RCEP and the TPP accord with those findings, probabilities are presentedshowing that the two tracks can achieve regional economic integration. In conclusion,the TPP is expected to become the winner of inter-institutional balancing.
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