The ROK Amidst the “Second Cold War”: Implications of the Emerging Sino–Russian Condominium of Geostrategic Power in Eurasia
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Putin’s invasion of Ukraine comes amidst indications that Moscow and Beijing are pursuing a condominium of geostrategic power to dominate Eurasia, with North Korea as a regional partner. Although there is muted mistrust between all three countries, this is outweighed by their common interests in seeking to displace the U.S. role in the post–1945 rules–based order. It is also likely that Beijing and Moscow view North Korea as a useful regional partner that can be used to occupy U.S. attention. Moreover, Xi Jinping’s ambitions to absorb Taiwan into China comes when U.S. ability to maintain its “Two War” capability is under question due to Washington’s efforts to contain Russian expansionism. Such developments pose a challenge for the ROK President Yoon Suk–yeol. Although the ROK has historically focused on the land warfare threat posed by North Korea, the possibility of the United States coming to blows with China in an air–naval standoff over Taiwan could leave the ROK in an awkward position insofar as its alliance obligations to the United States are concerned. Such trends underscore the need for the ROK to increase joint planning with the U.S. Indo–Pacific Command in planning for airnaval contingencies outside the Korean Peninsula.
Abstract
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine comes amidst indications that Moscow and Beijing are pursuing a condominium of geostrategic power to dominate Eurasia, with North Korea as a regional partner. Although there is muted mistrust between all three countries, this is outweighed by their common interests in seeking to displace the U.S. role in the post–1945 rules–based order. It is also likely that Beijing and Moscow view North Korea as a useful regional partner that can be used to occupy U.S. attention. Moreover, Xi Jinping’s ambitions to absorb Taiwan into China comes when U.S. ability to maintain its “Two War” capability is under question due to Washington’s efforts to contain Russian expansionism. Such developments pose a challenge for the ROK President Yoon Suk–yeol. Although the ROK has historically focused on the land warfare threat posed by North Korea, the possibility of the United States coming to blows with China in an air–naval standoff over Taiwan could leave the ROK in an awkward position insofar as its alliance obligations to the United States are concerned. Such trends underscore the need for the ROK to increase joint planning with the U.S. Indo–Pacific Command in planning for airnaval contingencies outside the Korean Peninsula.
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