독거노인빈곤 결정요인 연구-의사결정나무를 이용한 분석연구
Determinant of Poverty among the Elderly Living Alone : Using Decision Tree Analysis
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참고문헌
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초록
본 연구는 빅데이터와 데이터마이닝의 한 기법인 의사결정나무(Decision Tree)기법을 사용하여 우리나라 노인인구의 빈곤의 결정요인을 설명하는 모형을 검증하는 연구이다. 국민노후보장패널(2012)을 원자료로 이용하여 혼자 사는 노인가구를 대상으로 자료분석에 사용하였다. 연구목적은 인구·사회적 변수, 경제활동여부, 임금, 주택소유 유무 등의 요인이 노인의 빈곤에 미치는 영향요인을 찾아내기 위한 것이다. 의사결정분석방법은 기존의 로짓회귀분석과 달리 위계적인 결과를 보여줌으로 해서 연구결과가 보다 의미있는 정책적 함의를 지니게 된다. 분석결과 독거노인은 경제적인 독립성이 가장 중요한 반면 고연령의 노인집단과 낮은 수준의 삶의 만족도를 나타낸 노인은 빈곤할 가능성이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 분석 결과를 바탕으로 정책적 함의를 도출하였다.
Abstract
This study is interested in examining a model that determine the poverty among the elderly population in Korea. Applying the Decision-tree analysis within data-mining techniques, as a methodological branch of Big-Data, the study used data from the National Panel Survey on Pension Plan of 2012 and extracted respondents under 2 conditions: age(those who were at 65 years and older) living arrangement( those who lived alone). Dependent variable was income sources and attributes toward the variable included economic activity, earned wage, house ownership, as well as the quality of life, which became independent variables. And then, the Decision-tree analysis were used to explain the cause of poverty while demographic variables used as control variables. Unlike findings from a logistic regressional analysis, the study results showed a hierarchical order of variables suggested in the hypothetical model. The results showed that economic independence played the key to determine poverty as those who worked and earned wage income from the labor market are much less likely to live out of poverty. However, those who are older than 76 and indicated a lower score at the life satisfaction are more likely to live under the poverty line. Policy related implications on the elderly population living alone were also discussed.
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