주식시장 변동성과 채권시장 변동성
Stock Market Volatility and Bond Market Volatility
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본 연구는 투자자들의 많은 투자의 대상이 되고 있는 주식시장과 채권시장 변동성의 관계를 연구한 논문으로 관측변동성에 대해서만 연구한 기존논문들과는 차별적으로 상태공간모형에 의해 추정된 영속적 변동성과 일시적 변동성에 대해서도 분석하였다. 동시기적 상관관계분석에서는 관측변동성, 영속적 변동성의 경우에는 상관관계가 유의한 것으로 나타났으며, 일시적 변동성은 상관관계가 유의하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 동태적 관계분석에서는 관측변동성은 시차 4, 5에서 채권시장이 주식시장을 선도하는 것으로 나타났으며, 영속적 변동성의 경우에는 서로 양방향으로 영향을 미치는 상호작용관계가 있는 것으로 나타나 변동성 중에서 추세부분이 피드백관계를 갖는 것으로 판단된다. 잡음거래로부터 발생되는 일시적 변동성의 경우에는 시차 4, 5, 6의 경우에 국고채 일시적 변동성이 KOSPI 일시적 변동성에 대해 선도관계가 있는 것으로 나타났다
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between KOSPI volatility and KTB(Korea Treasury Bond) volatility. As a distinguishing feature from prior studies, observed volatility is decomposed into permanent volatility and temporary volatility by state-space model in this paper. Permanent volatility is modelled as a random walk process becuase it is trend component. And temporary volatility is assumed as an AR(1) process because it passes away with time. This paper focuses on permanent volatility and temporary volatility, respectively. Because the coefficient of asymmetric volatility term is statistically significant, KOSPI observed volatility and KTB observed volatility are estimated by GJR GARCH model. This means that bad news have high volatility than good news. In the correlation analysis, it is found that there are statistically significant contemporaneous correlations in the cases of observed volatility and permanent volatility. But there is statistically insignificant correlation in the case of temporary volatility. To investigate the dynamic relationship between KOSPI volatility and KTB volatility, Granger causality test is carried out. I summarize the results of empirical analysis as followings. First, observed volatility of KTB Granger causes observed volatility of KOSPI for lagged days 4 and 5. Second finding is that there is bidirectional relation between permanent volatility of KOSPI and permanent volatility of KTB for lagged days 3, 4, 5, and 6. Third finding is that, in the case of temporary volatility, there is no Granger causality for lagged days 1, 2, and 3.
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