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Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis of s-convergence in the U.S. Regional Income Distribution, 1969-1999

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한국도시지리학회|2004.06|한국도시지리학회지 (Journal of the Korean Urban Geographical Society)|제7권 제1호|pp. 79-96

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참고문헌

키워드

공간적 의존성공간적 이질성spatial heterogeneity시그마-수렴탐색적 공간자료분석공간적 연관 통계치s-convergenceESDA (exploratory spatial data analysis)spatial association measuresspatialdependence
주제분류지리학

초록

본 연구는 지역간 소득분포의 수렴/발산에 대한 경험적 연구 결과가 보여주고 있는 불일치성과 비일 관성이 최근 발전을 거듭하고 있는 공간자료분석의 연구절차들을 도입함으로써 상당한 정도 해소될 수 있다는 인식에 기반하고 있다. 특히‘공간적 연관 통계치(spatial association measures)’를 이용한 다양한 탐색적 공간자료 분석(ESDA; exploratory spatial data analysis) 기법들은 지역간 소득분포의 수렴/발산 연구에 새로운 지평을 열 수 있을 것이다. 이러한 측면에서, 본 연구는 두 가지 목적을 갖는데, 첫째는 시그마-수렴 테제와 그것에 근거한 경험적 연구결과에 대한 비판적 검토를 통해 공간적 효과(공간적 의존성과 공간적 이질성)에 대한 고려의 당위 성을 논증하는 것이고, 둘째는 다양한 탐색적 공간자료분석 기법을 이용하여 미국 30년간의 지역별 소득자료에 적용하여 분석하는 것이다. 주요한 연구결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 통계적 유의성을 갖는 소득의 집중지 (clusters)가 확인되었다. 그러나 고소득 집중지의 내적 동질성이 저소득 집중지의 그것에 비해 훨씬 높은 것으로 드러났다. 또한 이러한 소득 집중지의 공간적 범위나 내적 견고성은 30년 동안 상당한 정도 훼손된 것이 확인되 었다. 둘째, 지난 30 동안 현저한 공간적 재구조화는 발생하지 않았다. 즉, 고소득과 저소득의 공간적 구조는 크게 변화하지 않았다. 셋째, 뚜렷한 시그마-수렴은 지난 30년간에는 발생하지 않은 것으로 드러났다. 오히려 70년대 후반 이후 발산-수렴의 파동과 함께 점진적인 발산의 경향이 두드러진다. 특히 90년대 중반 이후 이러한 경향은 현저하다. 80년대와 90년대 후반기에는 모두 발산의 경향이 현저한데, 전자의 것은 공간적 집중과 관련되어 있고 후자의 것은 공간적 분산과 관련되어 있다. 이것은 두 시기의 지역적 발산이 상이한 공간적 과정과 연계되어 있 음을 의미하는 것이다. 즉, 80년대 후반기에는 파급효과나 인접지역간의 연계를 바탕으로 성장의 공간적 범위가 상대적으로 큰 접촉적 공간과정(contagious spatial processes)이 지배적이었다면, 90년대 후반기에는 역류효과나 계 층적 성장을 바탕으로 성장의 공간적 범위가 국지적으로 드러나는 산발적 공간과정(sporadic spatial processes)이 지배적이었음을 함축하고 있다.

Abstract

This study is predicated on the recognition that regional analyses should take advantage of recentadvances in spatial data analysis, especially ones utilizing spatial association measures, to investigate spatialdependence and spatial heterogeneity. Thus, the main objectives are to: (1) provide a critical review of empiricalstudies on the s-convergence from a spatial perspective; (2) investigate spatio-temporal income dynamics across theU.S. labor market areas for the last 30 years (1969-1999) by utilizing various ESDA (exploratory spatial data analysis)techniques. The main findings are as follows. First, several spatial clusters throughout the years are detected, but richclusters possess a higher level of internal homogeneity than poor clusters. It is also observed that the internal integritywithin the clusters has substantially been eroded. Second, the thirty years does not reveal a significant spatialrestructuring; whereas most areas in the tradition industrial cores are still enjoying a higher-than-average income level,most areas in the South suffer from the continuation of lower-than-average income. Third, the notion of s-convergence is not empirically evidenced; rather, a general trend towards income divergence was detected since thelate 1970s, particularly the mid-1990s. Two ascending trends in CV, each of which is oppositely associated with theMorans I trend in the late 1980s and the late 1990s, suggest that different spatial processes were involved in thoseperiods. That is, a contagious spatial process leading to spatial clustering was dominant in the former, while a sporadicspatial process inducing spatial dispersion somewhat prevailed in the latter.

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