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분위사상법을 이용한 RCP 기반 미래 극한강수량 편의보정 ; 우리나라 20개 관측소를 대상으로

Bias Correction of RCP-based Future Extreme Precipitation using a Quantile Mapping Method ; for 20-Weather Stations of South Korea

송인홍|강문성|박지훈
한국농공학회 (The Korean Society Of Agricultural Engineers)|2012.12|한국농공학회논문집 (Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)|제54권 제6호|pp. 133-142

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참고문헌

키워드

Climate changeRCPquantile mappingbias correctionGEV
주제분류농학

초록

The objective of this study was to correct the bias of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)-based future precipitation data using a quantile mapping method. This method was adopted to correct extreme values because it was designed to adjust simulated data using probability distribution function. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was used to fit distribution for precipitation data obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The resolutions of precipitation data was 12.5km in space and 3-hour in time. As the results of bias correction over the past 30 years (1976～2005), the annual precipitation was increased 16.3 % overall. And the results for 90 years (divided into 2011～2040, 2041～2070, 2071～2100) were that the future annual precipitation were increased 8.8 %, 9.6 %, 11.3 % respectively. It also had stronger correction effects on high value than low value. It was concluded that a quantile mapping appeared a good method of correcting extreme value.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to correct the bias of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)-based future precipitation data using a quantile mapping method. This method was adopted to correct extreme values because it was designed to adjust simulated data using probability distribution function. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was used to fit distribution for precipitation data obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The resolutions of precipitation data was 12.5km in space and 3-hour in time. As the results of bias correction over the past 30 years (1976～2005), the annual precipitation was increased 16.3 % overall. And the results for 90 years (divided into 2011～2040, 2041～2070, 2071～2100) were that the future annual precipitation were increased 8.8 %, 9.6 %, 11.3 % respectively. It also had stronger correction effects on high value than low value. It was concluded that a quantile mapping appeared a good method of correcting extreme value.

참고문헌 (17)

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