도심지 토사재해 고위험지역 극치강우 시간분포 시나리오 분석
Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Distribution Scenarios over the Landslide High Risk Zones in Urban Areas
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In this study, we analyzed the extreme rainfall distribution scenarios based on probable rainfall calculation and applying various time distribution modelsover the landslide high risk zones in urban areas. We used observed rainfall data form total 71 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) stationand AWS (Automatic Weather Station) in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), and we analyzed the linear trends for 1-hr and 24-hr annualmaximum rainfall series using simple linear regression method, which are identified their increasing trends with slopes of 0.035 and 0.660 during1961-2014, respectively. The Gumbel distribution was applied to obtain the return period and probability precipitation for each duration. The IDF(Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curves for landslide high risk zones were derived by applying integrated probability precipitation intensity equation. Results from IDF analysis indicate that the probability precipitation varies from 31.4~38.3 % for 1 hr duration, and 33.0~47.9 % for 24 hr duration. It alsoshowed different results for each area. The Huff-4thQuartile method as well as Mononobe distribution were selected as the rainfall distribution scenariosof landslide high risk zones. The results of this study can be used to provide boundary conditions for slope collapse analysis, to analyze sediment disasterrisk, and to use as input data for risk prediction of debris flow.
Abstract
In this study, we analyzed the extreme rainfall distribution scenarios based on probable rainfall calculation and applying various time distribution modelsover the landslide high risk zones in urban areas. We used observed rainfall data form total 71 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) stationand AWS (Automatic Weather Station) in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), and we analyzed the linear trends for 1-hr and 24-hr annualmaximum rainfall series using simple linear regression method, which are identified their increasing trends with slopes of 0.035 and 0.660 during1961-2014, respectively. The Gumbel distribution was applied to obtain the return period and probability precipitation for each duration. The IDF(Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curves for landslide high risk zones were derived by applying integrated probability precipitation intensity equation. Results from IDF analysis indicate that the probability precipitation varies from 31.4~38.3 % for 1 hr duration, and 33.0~47.9 % for 24 hr duration. It alsoshowed different results for each area. The Huff-4thQuartile method as well as Mononobe distribution were selected as the rainfall distribution scenariosof landslide high risk zones. The results of this study can be used to provide boundary conditions for slope collapse analysis, to analyze sediment disasterrisk, and to use as input data for risk prediction of debris flow.
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