태국의 왕위계승 연구: 쟁점과 전망
A Study on the Succession to the Throne in Thailand
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이 글의 목적은 태국 왕위 계승의 여러 가지 쟁점들을 분석해 보고 왕권의 향방을 전망해보는 것이다. 이 글에서는 지금까지의 관련 논의들을 각각 법적, 개인적, 정치적 쟁점으로 나누어 살펴보았다. 법적 쟁점은 1924년 왕위계승법, 1974년 헌법, 2007년 헌법, 2016년 헌법 등을 살펴보고 법적으로 가능한 승계순위를 파악한다. 개인적 쟁점은 왕세자의 개인적 자질이 왕위계승에 적합한 것인가를 살펴본다. 정치적 쟁점에서는 왕세자=친 탁씬 세력, 씨린턴 공주=반 탁씬 세력이라는 정치구도는 지속적으로 유효한 것인가에 초점을 맞추어 살펴본다. 이에 따른 잠정적인 결론은 다음과 같다. 왕세자는 왕위 계승의 모법이라고 볼 수 있는 1924년 왕위계승법에 따라서 1972년에 이미 책봉식을 가졌기 때문에 승계에는 아무런 문제가 없다. 개인적인 쟁점은 후계구도에 영향을 미칠 절대적 변수가 된다고 볼 수는 없다. 푸미폰 국왕과 달리 그의 후계자가 정치에 개입하지 않고 순수한 입헌군주제를 발전시켜나간다면 그 자질에 하자가 있다고 해도 큰 문제는 안 될 것이다. 후계구도에 영향을 미칠 가장 중요한 쟁점은 정치적 쟁점으로 볼 수 있다. 탁씬이 집권하는 2000년대 초 이래 후계문제는 심각한 정치적 쟁점의 대상으로 바뀌었다. 그리고 2014년 쿠데타 이전까지 왕세자=친 탁씬, 씨린턴 공주=반탁씬 구도가 고착되었으나, 이후에 이런 구도에 변화를 초래하는 사건들이 발생하고 있으며 왕세자가 차기 왕권을 계승할 가능성이 높아지고 있다. 특히 2014년 쿠데타 후 군부 지지설이 그 가능성을 높여 놓았다. 하지만 왕세자가 왕위계승을 할 가능성이 크더라도 정치적 쟁점은 이후 정치불안 문제를 야기시킬 수 있는 가장 중요한 변수가 될 것이다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze the controversial issues regarding the succession to the throne in Thailand and have a lookout of who will succeed to the throne. The controversial issues are examined with them divided into legal, individual and political one. As for the legal issue, reviewed will be 1924 Palace Law of Succession in Thailand, 1974 constitution, 2007 constitution and 2016 constitution, and the legally possible line of the succession will be seen. The individual issue is focused on whether the Crown Prince is qualified for the succession. As for the political issue, it will be examined whether the Crown Prince is supported by pro- Thaksin political powers and anti-Thaksin political powers support the Princess Sirindhorn. The tentative conclusions of this study are as follows. The Crown Prince already has been proclaimed heir to the throne in 1972 according to 1924 Palace Law of Succession, which can be seen as the mother law of the succession to the throne. So if he succeeds to the throne, it is very legal. The individual characteristic is not crucial enough to influence on the succession even though the crown prince has some weakness if he is a genuine constitutional monarch without intervening in the politics as King Bhumibol Adulyadej does. The most important issue to influence on the succession can be considered as the political one. Since Thaksin came to power in early 2001, the succession has turned into a serious political issue. Before the 2014 coup, it is widely known that Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn is for Thaksin. But after the coup, things that cause this format to change are occurring. The military, which led the coup, were against Thaksin and is supporting the Crown Prince. The relations among the Crown Prince, Thaksin and the military are like a tangled web. So even if the Crown Prince more likely succeeds to the throne, the political issue will be the biggest factor that could subsequently cause a serious political instability.
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