공간변이할당모형을 이용한 한·중·일 철강산업의 수출경쟁력분석
Export Competitiveness Analysis of the Korean, Chinese, and Japanese Steel Industries Using a Spatial Shift-Share Models
1
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 연구는 철강산업의 수출경쟁력 및 동태적 경쟁관계 분석을 위하여 한국, 중국, 일본을 중심으로 불변시장점유율모형과 공간변이할당모형을 적용하여 철강산업의 수출경쟁력 및 동태적 경쟁관계를 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 한국의 대세계 철강 수출변동의 주요 요인은 세계효과로 나타났다. 한국의 대중국 경쟁력 및 중국의 대세계 경쟁력의 변동 추이를 보여주는 동태적 공간분석에서는 한국 철강의 대중 경쟁력은 2016년과 2017년에는 강화하는 경향을 보였으나, 이후 2022년까지 경쟁력이 지속적으로 약화되는 추이로 나타나고 있다. 반대로, 중국의 대세계 경쟁력은 2017년까지 약화되었으나, 이후 2022년까지 경쟁력이 지속적으로 강화되는 추이를 보이고 있다. 또한 한국의 대일본 동태적 공간분석에서는 한국 철강의 대일 경쟁력 우위는 확대와 축소를 반복하고 있으며, 2017년부터는 좌측 편향 이동하고 있어 대일 경쟁력이 약해지는 추이이다. 중국의 대세계 철강 수출변동의 주요 요인은 세계효과로 나타났다. 그러나 동태적 공간분석에서 중국의 대일 경쟁력 우위는 2015년, 2016년, 2017년 축소되는 추세를 나타냈으나, 2018년부터는 경쟁력우위가 지속적으로 확대되는 추이이며, 특히 2021년과 2022년에 우위가 크게 확대되는 추이를 보이고 있다. 현재, 세계 철강산업은 전반적으로 침체되었지만, 공급과잉으로 인하여 여전히 경쟁이 치열하고 수요가 한계에 봉착된 시점에서, 우리나라 철강산업은 경쟁력을 향상시켜 지속가능한 산업이 되기를 기대한다.
Abstract
Purpose : This study analyzed the export competitiveness and dynamic competitive relationship of the steel industry. Research design, data, methodology : This study, the export competitiveness and dynamic competitive relationship of the steel industry were analyzed using the constant market share model and spatial shift-share model. Results : In Korea's dynamic spatial analysis of China, the competitiveness of Korean steel against China showed a tendency to strengthen in 2016 and 2017, but the competitiveness continues to weaken until 2022. China's competitiveness against the world weakened until 2017, but its competitiveness continues to strengthen until 2022. Korean steel's competitive advantage against Japan is repeatedly expanding and shrinking, and since 2017, its competitiveness against Japan is weakening. China's competitive advantage over Japan was on the decline in 2015, 2016, and 2017, but it has been continuously expanding since 2018, and in particular, the advantage is showing a significant expansion in 2021 and 2022. Conclusions : Although the global steel industry is currently experiencing an overall recession, competition is still fierce and demand is limited due to oversupply. At this point, our country's steel industry must strengthen its competitiveness and become a sustainable industry.
참고문헌 (21)
- Kwon, Ki-Su, "A Study on Korea’s export competitiveness in the Brazilian Market", Lusophone Area Studies, 16(1), pp.111~146 (2019)
- Kim, Sung-Chui, "An Empirical Study on the Export Competitiveness of Korean Communication Apparatus Industry in China", Korea Industrial Economic Association, 25(4), pp.2825~2840 (2012)
- Kim, Sung-Chui, "A Study on the Export Competitiveness of Korean & Japanese Cosmetic Industry in China", The Korean-Japanese Journal of Economics and Management Studies, 85, pp.47~66 (2019)
- Kim, Chang-Beom, "Export Competitiveness and Dynamic Competition Relationship of Korea, China, and Japan for Commodities Related to Fourth Industry Revolution in USA and EU Markets", The e-Business Studies, 19(4), pp.85~100 (2018)
- La, Kong-Woo, "A Study Competitiveness through Analysis of Export Similarity Index and Constant Market Share of Korea’s Major Export Products in China", Journal of International Commerce and Information, 21(4), pp.51~69 (2019)
- Mo, Soo-Won, "Spatial Contagion Analysis of Port Exports to China Based on Spatial Shift-Share Models and Export Growth Forecast with Constant Market Share and Shift-Share Analysis Combined", Journal of Korea Research Association of International Commerce, 20(3), pp.1~17 (2020)
- Park, Soon-Tae, "International Business Approach to Korea’s Die & Mold", The e-Business Studies, 21(4), pp.161~171 (2020)
- Park, Jeong-Whan, "Decomposition of Export Changes and Analysis of Export Shift Pattern of Korea’s Green and Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles between Countries Using 2-Factor, 3-Factor, 4-Factor, 6-Factor, and 8-Factor Constant Market Shares Models and International Spatial Shift-Share Model", Asia-Pacific Journal of Business & Commerce, 13(3), pp.72~93 (2021)
- Baek, Eun-Young, "A Study on the Competitiveness of Industries for the Expansion of Value-added Trade in South Korea : Focusing on the Technology Trade Specialization Index", The e-Business Studies, 21(4), pp.105~112 (2020)
- Sung, Bong-Suk, "An Analysis on the Relationship between the Environmental Regulation and the Export Specialization Pattern in Renewable Energy Industry", Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies, 17(2), pp.103~125 (2010)
- Son, Yong-Jung, "An Analysis of Export Competitive Power in Korean Marine Export Products Using Comparative Advantages and Disadvantages by Countries : A Focus on Export to China and USA", The e-Business Studies, 22(4), pp.123~133 (2021)
- Son, Yong-Jung, "An Analysis of Export Change Between Korea and China in Transfer Vehicle Industry Using Constant Market Share Analysis : Goods Relating to Cars, Airplanes, Ships and Transfer Vehicles", Journal of Corporation and Innovation, 44(1), pp.217~230 (2021)
- Sin, Sun-Young, "Analysis of the Export Changes of Korea’s HS9031 Products Using a Constant Market Share Model", Journal of International Trade & Commerce, 19(3), pp.99~113 (2023)
- Lee, Jin-Woo, "Japan Steel, a Steel Company to Watch in 2023", Policies and Issues, pp.73~76 (2023)
- Jeong, Yun-Ha, "The Export Competitiveness Analysis of HS2008 Product Groups in Goheung-gun : A Focus on Competitors in the US Market", The Journal of Korean Island, 35(1), pp.41~56 (2023)
- Tak, Eun-Myeong, "A Study on the Export Competition with China and Japan in Vietnam and Competitiveness of Korean Products", The Journal of Korea Research Society for Customs, 19(3), pp.107~124 (2018)
- Hong, Jeong-Yee, "A Study on the Transition in International Competitiveness of Steel Industry between Major Countries", The Korean Academy of Business History, 37(1), pp.86~89 (2022)
- Balassa, B., "Exports and Economic Growth : Further Evidence", Journal of Development Economics, 5(2), pp.181~189 (1978)
- Trade Policy as an Input to Development, "Krueger, A. O.", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.No. w0466 (1980)
- Milana, C., "Constant Market Shares Analysis and Index Number Theory", European Journal of Political Economy, 4(4), pp.453~478 (1988)
- Tyszynski, H., "World Trade in Manufactured Commodities, 1899-1950", Manchester School of Economic Social Studies, 19, pp.272~304 (1951)