2016년 한반도 장마 강수 특성 분석
Analysis of Characteristics for 2016 Changma Rainfall
2
조회
0
다운로드
3
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Characteristics of precipitation in South Korea during the 2016 Changma period (6/ 18~7/30) are analyzed in great details. El Niño-induced tropical Indian Ocean (IO) basin-wide warming lasts from spring to early summer and induces the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) circulation anomaly through an equatorial Kelvin wave during the 2016 Changma period. Along the northern edge of the WNPSH, strong precipitation occurred, in particular, over eastern China and southern Japan. During the Changma period, South Korea had the near-normal mean precipitation amount (~332 mm). However, about 226 mm of rain fell in South Korea during 1 July to 6 July, which amounts to 67% of total Changma precipitation in that year. Upper-level synoptic migratory lows and low-level moisture transport played an essential role, especially from 1 July to 3 July, in triggering an abrupt development of fronts over the Korean Peninsula and the eastern continent China. The front over the eastern China migrates progressively eastward, which results in heavy rainfall over the Korean peninsula from 1 to 3 July. In contrast, from 4 to 6 July, the typhoon (NEPARTAK) affected an abrupt northward advance of the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH). The northward extension of the NPSH strengthens the Changma front and induces the southerly flows toward the Korean peninsula, giving rise to an increase in heavy rainfall. The NEPARTAK is generated due to interaction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), equatorial Rossby wave and Kelvin waves.
Abstract
Characteristics of precipitation in South Korea during the 2016 Changma period (6/ 18~7/30) are analyzed in great details. El Niño-induced tropical Indian Ocean (IO) basin-wide warming lasts from spring to early summer and induces the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) circulation anomaly through an equatorial Kelvin wave during the 2016 Changma period. Along the northern edge of the WNPSH, strong precipitation occurred, in particular, over eastern China and southern Japan. During the Changma period, South Korea had the near-normal mean precipitation amount (~332 mm). However, about 226 mm of rain fell in South Korea during 1 July to 6 July, which amounts to 67% of total Changma precipitation in that year. Upper-level synoptic migratory lows and low-level moisture transport played an essential role, especially from 1 July to 3 July, in triggering an abrupt development of fronts over the Korean Peninsula and the eastern continent China. The front over the eastern China migrates progressively eastward, which results in heavy rainfall over the Korean peninsula from 1 to 3 July. In contrast, from 4 to 6 July, the typhoon (NEPARTAK) affected an abrupt northward advance of the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH). The northward extension of the NPSH strengthens the Changma front and induces the southerly flows toward the Korean peninsula, giving rise to an increase in heavy rainfall. The NEPARTAK is generated due to interaction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), equatorial Rossby wave and Kelvin waves.
참고문헌 (32)
- Ruiqiang Ding, "Interdecadal shift in the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and the tropical Indian Ocean", Climate Dynamics, 34(7-8), pp.1059~1071 (2010), Springer Nature[DOI]
- Emanuel, K. A., "The behavior of a simple hurricane model using a convective scheme based on subcloudlayer entropy equilibrium", J. Atmos. Sci., 52, pp.3960~3968 (1995)
- Emanuel, K. A., "Tropical cyclone activity and global climate", Preprints, 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, pp.240~241 (2004), Amer. Meteor. Soc.
- Gray, W. M., "Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms", Mon. Wea. Rev., 96, pp.669~700 (1968)
- Huffman, G. J., "The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) combined precipitation dataset", Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, pp.5~20 (1997)
- Masao Kanamitsu, "NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2)", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83(11), pp.1631~1644 (2002), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Kang, I. -S., "Principal modes of climatological seasonal and intraseasonal variations of the Asian summer monsoon", Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, pp.322~340 (1999)
- Kiladis, G. N., "Zonal and vertical structure of the Madden-Julian oscillation", J. Atmos. Sci., 62, pp.2790~2809 (2005)
- George N. Kiladis, "Convectively coupled equatorial waves", Reviews of Geophysics, 47(2), pp.RG2003~ (2009), American Geophysical Union (AGU)[DOI]
- 김아현, "종관규모 기압능이 한반도를 덮고 있는 기간에 중부지방에서 나타난 호우의 발생 원인", 대기, 26(4), pp.577~598 (2016), 한국기상학회
- 김진용, "Development of Statistical Prediction Models for Changma Precipitation: An Ensemble Approach", 한국기상학회지, 53(2), pp.207~216 (2017), 한국기상학회
- Klein, S. A., "Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO: Evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge", J. Climate, 12, pp.917~932 (1999)
- Changma White Paper, "Korea Meteorological Administration", Korea Meteorological Administration, 268~ (2011)
- Korea Meteorological Administration, "Learn from Case of the Last 20 Years, Top 10 Heavy Rainfall", Korea Meteorological Administration, 47~ (2012)
- 2016 Abnormal climate Report, "Korea Meteorological Administration", Korea Meteorological Administration, 190~ (2017)
- Y. Kosaka, "Origin of seasonal predictability for summer climate over the Northwestern Pacific", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(19), pp.7574~7579 (2013), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences[DOI]
- Seung-Eon Lee, "The Development of a Statistical Forecast Model for Changma", Weather and Forecasting, 28(6), pp.1304~1321 (2013), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- 이태영, "Heavy Precipitation Systems over the Korean Peninsula and their Classification", 한국기상학회지, 43(4), pp.367~396 (2007), 한국기상학회
- Lombardo, K., "Influence of equatorial Rossby waves on tropical cyclogenesis in the western Pacific", M.S., pp.2004
- Maloney, E. D., "The Madden-Julian oscillation, barotropic dynamics, and north Pacific tropical cyclone formation. Part I: observations", J. Atmos. Sci., 58, pp.2545~2558 (2001)
- "Global Climate Report - Annual 2016" (2017)[URL]
- 박창근, "장마전선 상에서 발생한 중규모 호우계 구조에 대한 연구", 대기, 18(4), pp.317~338 (2008), 한국기상학회
- 서경환, "장마의 재조명", 대기, 21(2), pp.109~121 (2011), 한국기상학회
- Kyong-Hwan Seo, "Factors for the Simulation of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves", Journal of Climate, 25(10), pp.3495~3514 (2012), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Kyong-Hwam Seo, "Northern East Asian Monsoon Precipitation Revealed by Airmass Variability and Its Prediction", Journal of Climate, 28(15), pp.6221~6233 (2015), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Shin, C. -S., "Development mechanisms for the heavy rainfalls of 6-7 August 2002 over the middle of the Korean peninsula", J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 83, pp.683~709 (2002)
- Straub, K. H., "Observations of a convectively coupled Kelvin wave in the eastern Pacific ITCZ", J. Atmos. Sci., 59, pp.30~53 (2002)
- Sun, J., "A numerical study of an intense quasi-stationary convection band over the Korean Peninsula", J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 80, pp.1221~1245 (2002)
- B. Wang, "Subtropical High predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(8), pp.2718~2722 (2013), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences[DOI]
- Wheeler, M., "Convectively coupled equatorial waves: Analysis of clouds and temperature in the wavenumber-frequency domain", J. Atmos. Sci., 56, pp.374~399 (1999)
- Xie, S. -P., "Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño", J. Climate, 22, pp.730~747 (2009)
- Xiao-Yi Yang, "Connection between the decadal variability in the Southern Ocean circulation and the Southern Annular Mode", Geophysical Research Letters, 34(16), pp.L02708~ (2007), American Geophysical Union (AGU)[DOI]