종관 관측 자료 변화에 따른 예보 성능 분석
Analysis of Forecast Performance by Altered Conventional Observation Set
2
조회
0
다운로드
2
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
The conventional observations of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are compared in the numerical weather forecast system at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS). The weather forecasting system used in this study is consists of Korea Integrated Model (KIM) as a global numerical weather prediction model, three-dimensional variational method as a data assimilation system, and KIAPS Package for Observation Processing (KPOP) as an observation pre-processing system. As a result, the forecast performance of NCEP observation was better while the number of observation is similar to the KMA observation. In addition, the sensitivity of forecast performance was investigated for each SONDE, SURFACE and AIRCRAFT observations. The differences in AIRCRAFT observation were not sensitive to forecast, but the use of NCEP SONDE and SURFACE observations have shown better forecast performance. It is found that the NCEP observations have more wind observations of the SONDE in the upper atmosphere and more surface pressure observations of the SURFACE in the ocean. The results suggest that evenly distributed observations can lead to improved forecast performance.
Abstract
The conventional observations of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are compared in the numerical weather forecast system at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS). The weather forecasting system used in this study is consists of Korea Integrated Model (KIM) as a global numerical weather prediction model, three-dimensional variational method as a data assimilation system, and KIAPS Package for Observation Processing (KPOP) as an observation pre-processing system. As a result, the forecast performance of NCEP observation was better while the number of observation is similar to the KMA observation. In addition, the sensitivity of forecast performance was investigated for each SONDE, SURFACE and AIRCRAFT observations. The differences in AIRCRAFT observation were not sensitive to forecast, but the use of NCEP SONDE and SURFACE observations have shown better forecast performance. It is found that the NCEP observations have more wind observations of the SONDE in the upper atmosphere and more surface pressure observations of the SURFACE in the ocean. The results suggest that evenly distributed observations can lead to improved forecast performance.
참고문헌 (24)
- Arnold, C. P. Jr., "Observing-Systems Simulation Experiments: Past, Present, and Future", Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 67, pp.687~695 (1986)
- Atlas, R., "Atmospheric observations and experiments to assess their usefulness in data assimilation", J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn, 75, pp.111~130 (1997)
- The ERA-Interim archive Version 2.0, "Berrisford, P.", ECMWF ERA, 23~, pp.ECMWF ERA Report Series-1 (2011)
- Bouttier, F., "Observing-system experiments in the ECMWF 4D-Var data assimilation system", Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 127, pp.1469~1488 (2001)
- Suk-Jin Choi, "A Global Non-Hydrostatic Dynamical Core Using the Spectral Element Method on a Cubed-Sphere Grid", Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 52(3), pp.291~307 (2016), 한국기상학회
- S.-J. Choi, "Verification of a non-hydrostatic dynamical core using the horizontal spectral element method and vertical finite difference method: 2-D aspects", Geoscientific Model Development, 7(6), pp.2717~2731 (2014), Copernicus GmbH[DOI]
- 홍송유, "The Korean Integrated Model (KIM) System for Global Weather Forecasting", Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 54, pp.267~292 (2018), 한국기상학회[DOI]
- Hunt, B. R., "Efficient data assimilation for spatiotemporal chaos: A local ensemble transform Kalman filter", Physica D, 230, pp.112~126 (2007)
- Seung-On Hwang, "The Impact of Observation Systems on Medium-Range Weather Forecasting in a Global Forecast System", Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 48(2), pp.159~170 (2012), 한국기상학회[DOI]
- 조영순, "KIAPS 앙상블 자료동화 시스템을 이용한 GPS 차폐자료 연직 국지화 규모 최적화", 대기, 25(3), pp.529~541 (2015), 한국기상학회
- 조영순, "앙상블 자료동화 시스템에서 ASCAT 해상풍 자료동화가 분석장에 미치는 효과 분석", 대기, 28(3), pp.263~272 (2018), 한국기상학회[DOI]
- 강전호, "Development of an Observation Processing Package for Data Assimilation in KIAPS", Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 54, pp.303~318 (2018), 한국기상학회[DOI]
- Kelly, G., "The value of observations. I: Data denial experiments for the Atlantic and the Pacific", Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc, 133, pp.1803~1815 (2007)
- "PREPBUFR processing at NCEP" (2018)[URL]
- 김기병, "전구 모델의 물리과정에 따른 태풍 모의 민감도", 대기, 27(1), pp.17~28 (2017), 한국기상학회[DOI]
- 구명서, "Advances in Land Modeling of KIAPS Based on The Noah Land Surface Model", Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 53(3), pp.361~373 (2017), 한국기상학회
- 권인혁, "Development of an Operational Hybrid Data Assimilation System at KIAPS", Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 54, pp.319~335 (2018), 한국기상학회[DOI]
- 이은희, "SYNOP 지상관측자료를 활용한 수치모델 전구 예측성 검증", 대기, 27(2), pp.235~249 (2017), 한국기상학회[DOI]
- 이시혜, "KIAPS 관측자료 처리시스템에서의 AMSU-A 위성자료 초기 전처리와편향보정 모듈 개발", 대기, 23(4), pp.453~470 (2013), 한국기상학회[DOI]
- 이시혜, "통계적 방법에 근거한 AMSU-A 복사자료의 전처리 및 편향보정", 대기, 24(4), pp.491~502 (2014), 한국기상학회
- "ODB User Guide" (2004)[URL]
- Schulze, G. C., "Atmospheric observations and numerical weather prediction", S. Afr. J. Sci, 103, pp.318~323 (2007)
- Sienkiewicz, J. M., "An example of the importance of ship observations", Wea. Forecasting, 5, pp.683~687 (1990)
- Hyo-Jong Song, "Spectral Transformation Using a Cubed-Sphere Grid for a Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation System", Monthly Weather Review, 143(7), pp.2581~2599 (2015), American Meteorological Society[DOI]