앙상블 칼만 필터 기반 탄소추적시스템의 아시아 지역 탄소 순환 진단에의 적용
Application of Carbon Tracking System based on Ensemble Kalman Filter on the Diagnosis of Carbon Cycle in Asia
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초록
CO2 is the most important trace gas related to climate change. Therefore,understanding surface carbon sources and sinks is important when seeking to estimate the impact of CO2 on the environment and climate. CarbonTracker, developed by NOAA, is an inverse modeling system that estimates surface carbon fluxes using an ensemble Kalman filter with atmospheric CO2 measurements as a constraint. In this study, to investigate the capability of CarbonTracker as an analysis tool for estimating surface carbon fluxes in Asia, an experiment with a nesting domain centered in Asia is performed. In general, the results show that setting a nesting domain centered in Asia region enables detailed estimations of surface carbon fluxes in Asia. From a rank histogram, the prior ensemble spread verified at observational sites located in Asia is well represented with a relatively flat rank histogram. The posterior flux in the Eurasian Boreal and Eurasian Temperate regions is well analyzed with proper seasonal cycles and amplitudes. On the other hand, in tropical regions of Asia, the posterior flux does not differ greatly from the prior flux due to fewer CO2 observations. The root mean square error of the model CO2 calculated by the posterior flux is less than the model CO2 calculated by the prior flux, implying that CarbonTracker based on the ensemble Kalman filter works appropriately for the Asia region.
Abstract
CO2 is the most important trace gas related to climate change. Therefore,understanding surface carbon sources and sinks is important when seeking to estimate the impact of CO2 on the environment and climate. CarbonTracker, developed by NOAA, is an inverse modeling system that estimates surface carbon fluxes using an ensemble Kalman filter with atmospheric CO2 measurements as a constraint. In this study, to investigate the capability of CarbonTracker as an analysis tool for estimating surface carbon fluxes in Asia, an experiment with a nesting domain centered in Asia is performed. In general, the results show that setting a nesting domain centered in Asia region enables detailed estimations of surface carbon fluxes in Asia. From a rank histogram, the prior ensemble spread verified at observational sites located in Asia is well represented with a relatively flat rank histogram. The posterior flux in the Eurasian Boreal and Eurasian Temperate regions is well analyzed with proper seasonal cycles and amplitudes. On the other hand, in tropical regions of Asia, the posterior flux does not differ greatly from the prior flux due to fewer CO2 observations. The root mean square error of the model CO2 calculated by the posterior flux is less than the model CO2 calculated by the prior flux, implying that CarbonTracker based on the ensemble Kalman filter works appropriately for the Asia region.
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