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The Usefulness of Z-Score Model on Bankruptcy Forecast

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초록

The purpose of this study examines whether Z-Score model suggested by Altman is the useful of Korean firms' bankruptcy classification criteria through the empirical test of Altman's Z-Score model on the financial performance. From analytical results, this study develops the hypothesis by comparing the financial performance between good financial health and bankruptcy score by Altman's data using a sample of 374 Korean firms through Korean bankruptcy classification criteria of Altman's Z-Score model during 2001-2010 period. The empirical results indicate that the Altman's Z-Score model is significantly the firm's financial performance as measured by the firm’s profitability(ROA) and ICC(Implied Cost of Capital). These results hold up even after controlling for the differences in the financial leverage and size. Overall, the findings provide directly support to the evidence that the Altman's Z-Score model is able to measure as a bankruptcy classification criteria on Korean firms.

Abstract

The purpose of this study examines whether Z-Score model suggested by Altman is the useful of Korean firms' bankruptcy classification criteria through the empirical test of Altman's Z-Score model on the financial performance. From analytical results, this study develops the hypothesis by comparing the financial performance between good financial health and bankruptcy score by Altman's data using a sample of 374 Korean firms through Korean bankruptcy classification criteria of Altman's Z-Score model during 2001-2010 period. The empirical results indicate that the Altman's Z-Score model is significantly the firm's financial performance as measured by the firm’s profitability(ROA) and ICC(Implied Cost of Capital). These results hold up even after controlling for the differences in the financial leverage and size. Overall, the findings provide directly support to the evidence that the Altman's Z-Score model is able to measure as a bankruptcy classification criteria on Korean firms.

참고문헌 (15)

  1. Understanding the Recovery Rates of Defaulted Securities, "Acharya, V.", London Business School, ~ (2003)
  2. Altman, E., "Financial Ratios, Discriminate Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy", Journal of Finance, 23, pp.589~609 (1968)
  3. Altman, E., "Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy" (1993), John Wiley and Sons
  4. Altman, E., "How rating Agencies Achieve Rating Stability", Journal of Banking and Finance, 28, pp.2679~2714 (2004)
  5. Berkovitch, E., "The Bankruptcy Decision and Debt Contract Renegotiation", European Finance Review, pp.1~27 (1998)
  6. Bhamra, H., "The Levered Equity Risk Premium and Credit Spreads: A Unified Framework" (2009), SSRN
  7. Campbell, J., "The Econometrics of Financial Markets" (1997), Princeton University Press
  8. Chava, S., "Is Default-Risk Negatively Related to Stock Returns?" (2009), SSRN
  9. Chava, S., "Bankruptcy Prediction with Industry Effects" (2004), SSRN
  10. When Do Firms Default?: A Study of The Default Boundary, "Davydenko, S.", University of Toronto, ~ (2010)
  11. Duffie, D., "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds", Review of Financial Studies, pp.197~226 (1999)
  12. Janosi, T., "Estimating Expected Losses and Liquidity Discounts Implicit in Debt Prices", Journal of Risk, pp.1~38 (2002)
  13. 김요환, "The Relationship between Default Risk, Size and Financial Performance from Korean Firms", 국제회계연구, (48), pp.269~286 (2013), 한국국제회계학회
  14. Shumway, T., "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model", Journal of Business, pp.101~124 (2001)
  15. 손인성, "부채수용력을 이용한 자본조달순서이론의 검정", 국제회계연구, (48), pp.153~180 (2013), 한국국제회계학회

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