선박 복원성 판단을 위한 선회구간 횡요각 예측 모델
A Prediction Model for the Rolling Angle during the Turning Section to Determine Ship Stability
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초록
운항 중 선박의 복원성 판단을 위해 다양한 연구가 수행되고 있고, 그중 FFT를 이용한 횡요주기 계산 방법과 그 응용이 대표적으로 사용되고 있다. 하지만 횡요주기 기반 GM 추정 방법은 선박 선회 시 지속적인 외방경사 및 타의 작용으로 인해 정확한 횡요주기를 도출하지 못하는 한계를 가지고 있다. 본 연구는 운항 중 선박의 선회구간에서 적용할 수 있는 새로운 복원성 평가 방식을 제시하고자 한다. 이를 위해 선박의 GPS 데이터를 이용하여 구심력을 계산하고 다중선형회귀를 적용하여 구심력에 의한 횡요각 예측 모델을 설계하였다. 또한 이상 탐지 방법론을 적용하여 실제 횡요각과 모델의 예측값 사이의 오차를 기반으로 복원성을 평가하였다. 그리고 통계적 기법을 적용하여 이상 판단에 필요한 임곗값을 산출하고, 이를 토대로 복원성을 평가할 수 있는 기준값을 제시하였다. 신뢰성과 효용성 검증을 위해 실운항 데이터와 시뮬레이션 데이터를 활용하여 다각적인 검증을 수행하였으며, 이를 통해 선박 운항 중에 발생할 수 있는 잠재적 위험을 조기에 탐지하고 효과적으로 대응할 수 있는 중요한 기여를 할 것으로 기대된다.
Abstract
Existing GM estimation methods based on roll period have limitations in accurately determining roll periods during ship turns due to persistent outward inclinations. This study proposes a novel stability calculation method specifically designed for turning scenarios. To achieve this, centripetal force was calculated using GPS data from the ship, and a multiple linear regression model was developed to predict roll angles influenced by centripetal force. An anomaly detection methodology was then applied to assess stability by comparing the actual roll angles with the model's predicted values. Statistical techniques were utilized to establish threshold values for anomaly identification, providing criteria for stability evaluation. To verify the reliability and applicability of this approach, comprehensive validation was conducted using both real-world operational data and simulation data. This method aims to significantly enhance early detection of potential risks during ship operations and support effective responses.
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