해양수색구조 의사결정지원을 위한 익수자 생존시간 고찰
A Study on the Survival Time of a Person in Water for Search and Rescue Decision Support
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초록
해양수색구조에서 조난자의 생존시간 예측은 중요한 관심사 중 하나이다. 해양선진국에서 생존모델에 관한 연구가 많이 있었지만 영국, 미국, 캐나다 사고 데이터를 이용해 개발되었기 때문에 우리나라 해역에서 한국인 체형에 그대로 적용하는 데에 어려움이 따른다. 이러한 문제점을 해결하기 위해 해양경찰 해상수색구조사례, 언론보도자료, 기상청 자료, 해양경찰 해양특수구조단 전문가 면담 및 설문조사를 통해 익수자 생존시간에 관한 자료를 수집하였다. 이 자료를 이용해 추세분석 및 회귀분석을 수행하여 익수자 최대 생존시간(한국형) 산정 식을 개발하였다. 이 산식과 해외 생존모델과 비교하여 우리나라 해양조난사고에 적용가능성을 검토하였다. 최대 생존시간(한국형), 국내 해양수색구조 익수자 구조 사례, 해외 생존모델을 종합적으로 활용하여 조난자 생존시간과 집중ㆍ추천 수색시간 지침을 제언하였다. 이를 통해 수색자원의 투입 등 의사결정에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 추가로 해양수색구조의 종료ㆍ축소를 결정하고 조난자 가족 및 국민 대상으로 정책결정 내용을 설명하는데 도움이 될 수 있다.
Abstract
Predicting the survival time of a person in water (PIW) in maritime search and rescue (SAR) operations is an important concern. Although there have been many studies on survival models in marine-developed countries, it is difficult to apply them to Koreans in Korea's oceans because they were developed using marine distress data from the United Kingdom, United States, and Canada. Data on the survival time of a PIW were collected through interviews and surveys with a special rescue team from the Korea Coast Guard, SAR cases, press releases, and Korea Meteorological Administration data to address these issues. The maximum survival time (Korean) equation was developed by performing a regression analysis of this data, and the applicability to actual marine distress was reviewed and compared to the overseas survival model. By comprehensively using the maximum survival time (Korean), domestic SAR cases, and overseas survival models, guidelines for survival time and intensive and recommended search time were suggested. The study findings can contribute to decision-making, such as the input for search and rescue units. The findings can also help to determine the end of or reductions in SAR operations and explain policy decisions to the public and families of a PIW.
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