폐기물 수출입 흐름 변화가 폐기물 관리에 미치는 영향
Impacts for Waste Management According to Waste Trade
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초록
본 연구는 폐기물 무역(수출입) 규제 등 폐기물 관리의 여건변화가 폐기물 관리에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위한 사례를 검토하고 그에따른 분석 방안을 정리하였다. 검토결과, 영향분석을 위해서는 우선 국내 혹은 지역내 최근 폐기물 양을 산정하고, 폐기물 수입경로 및 국내유입량 변화에 따른 향후 폐기물 양의 변화추이를 합리적으로 예측하는 것이 중요하다. 또한 폐기물 물질흐름이나 환경규제 등에 중점을 둔 전통적 관점 이외에도, 다양한 측면에서의 요인을 목록화하고 그에 따른 시나리오를 도출하는 것이 효과적이다. 각 시나리오에 대한 분석방법은 크게 정성적 및 정량적 기법으로 구분할 수 있는데 최근의 국제정세가 향후 불확실성이 크고 혁신적 변화가 수반될 가능성이 존재하는 경우 정성적 기법을 우선 적용하고, 이후 국제정세의 불확실성이 감소한 상황에서의 점진적 변화 예측 시 정량적 기법을 적용하는 것이 바람직할 것으로 판단된다. 이러한 검토를 기반으로 본 연구에서는 최근 우리나라 폐기물 수출입 여건으로 인한 영향분석 방안 및 절차를 구축하였다. 최근 보건 및 경제위기 등 불확실성이 큰 점을 감안하여, 전략적 분석은 가능한 다양한 측면에서의 시나리오 도출에 중점을 두고, 각 시나리오별로 활용 가능한 분석기법 적용방안을 제시하였다.
Abstract
This study reviewed the examples on analyses of the potential impacts to waste management, due to the recent trends of waste trade regulation, and summarized an analysis strategy of the impacts. As a result, a desirable analysis may begin with reasonable estimation of recent waste amounts and flows, and reasonable prediction of the future trends of waste amounts. Then, it is effective to list various key factors and derive future scenarios of the impacts, as well as employ the traditional viewpoints focusing on waste material flow or environmental regulations. The applicable analyses for each scenario can be largely divided into qualitative and quantitative methods. Due to a high uncertainty in the recent international situations with entailing possible innovative economic changes, qualitative methods may be considered in advance, and then quantitative techniques may be utilized to predict gradual changes at relieved uncertainty of the situations. Based on this review so far, proper methodology and procedures for the impact analysis were suggested on recent waste trade conditions in Korea. Given existence of the recent uncertainties such as the health and economic crises, the analysis preferably focused on deriving strategic scenarios with respect to various aspects, and suggested analysis methods applicable to each scenario.
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