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Bayesian Reliability Estimation of a New Expendable Launch Vehicle
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Purpose: This paper explains how to obtain the Bayes estimates of the whole launch vehicle and of a vehiclestage, respectively, for a newly developed expendable launch vehicle. Methods: We determine the parameters of the beta prior distribution using the upper bound of the 60%Clopper-Pearson confidence interval of failure probability which is calculated from previous launch data consideringthe experience of the developer. Results: Probability that a launch vehicle developed from an inexperienced developer succeeds in the firstlaunch is obtained by about one third, which is much smaller than that estimated from the previous research. Conclusion: The proposed approach provides a more conservative estimate than the previous noninformativeprior, which is more reasonable especially for the initial reliability of a new vehicle which is developed byan inexperienced developer.
Abstract
Purpose: This paper explains how to obtain the Bayes estimates of the whole launch vehicle and of a vehiclestage, respectively, for a newly developed expendable launch vehicle. Methods: We determine the parameters of the beta prior distribution using the upper bound of the 60%Clopper-Pearson confidence interval of failure probability which is calculated from previous launch data consideringthe experience of the developer. Results: Probability that a launch vehicle developed from an inexperienced developer succeeds in the firstlaunch is obtained by about one third, which is much smaller than that estimated from the previous research. Conclusion: The proposed approach provides a more conservative estimate than the previous noninformativeprior, which is more reasonable especially for the initial reliability of a new vehicle which is developed byan inexperienced developer.
참고문헌 (14)
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