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디지털전환 시대 기술진보 편향성과 거시경제적 효과 파급경로에 대한 고찰

Investigating the Economy-wide Impact Channels induced by Factor-biased Technological Changes in Digital Transformation era

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초록

디지털 전환에 의한 지능형 자동화는 노동시장 붕괴와 소득 불평등 확대 등을 초래할 것으로 전망된다. 이는 과거 정보통신기술의 발전에 따라 숙련 및 자본편향적 기술진보가 발생하였으며, 이에 따른 임금 격차 및 소득 불평등이 발생한 것에서 확인할 수 있다. 디지털전환은 여기에 더해 반복업무 편향적 기술진보의 특성을 지니고 있으며, 이에 따른 기술적 실업 증가와 일자리 구조 양극화 등 악영향이 우려된다. 반면, 디지털전환 등 기술혁신에 따른 제품 수요 및 생산 확대와 새로운 일자리 창출 등 긍정적 효과 분석은 많이 이루어지지 않은 상황이다. 이러한 배경 하, 본 논문에서는 디지털전환 시대의 숙련도 및 업무 형태 변화 등에 따른 기술진보 편향성에 의한 경제사회시스템 내 다양한 영향을 구조화하여 이해하고, 이를 바탕으로 기술혁신에 따른 거시경제적 파급효과의 영향 경로를 제시하고자 한다. 이를 통해 디지털전환의 직접적 노동시장 효과 뿐 아니라, 생산현장 및 소득구조와 연계되는 간접적 효과를 포착함으로써 디지털전환 시대의 포용성 강화를 위한 정책처방 발굴과정을 뒷받침하는 개념적 체계를 제안하고자 한다.

Abstract

Digital transformation has risk factors including the collapse of the labor market and income inequality caused by intelligent automation. Innovation has an intrinsic property of factor-biased technological change and its impact on the labor market originates from this property. This can be confirmed from the fact that skill and capital-biased technological progress has occurred due to the development of information and communication technology, and the resulting wage gap and income inequality have arisen. In addition, digital transformation has the characteristic of routine-biased technological change, and there are concerns about adverse effects of an increase in technological unemployment and polarization of the job structure. On the other hand, the positive effects of innovation including expansion of product demand and production, and creation of new jobs have not been analyzed much. This study structures and understands the major impacts of technological progress in economic system regarding the skill level and work type in the digital transformation era with previous studies. Based on this, this study proposes the analytic framework including the economy-wide impact paths of digital transformation with not only its direct effect on labor market but also the indirect effects mediating production process and income distribution. The analytic framework proposed in this study can be expected to play a role as a conceptual system that supports the process of discovering policy prescriptions to promote inclusiveness in the digital transformation era.

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