태풍시 보험금청구자료를 이용한 강풍 취약도 모델링
Wind Vulnerability Modelling Using Typhoon Claims
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본 연구에서는 태풍시 보험금청구자료를 이용하여 강풍 취약도 모델링을 수행한다. 보험금청구자료는 2009-2013 기간의 13개 태풍 시 강풍으로 인한 보험금청구자료이다. 보험사고는 대부분 최대풍속 30m/s 미만 범위에서 발생하였다. 취약도 모델링은 사업장 단위의 사고심도와 사고빈도를 구분하여 수행되었다. 사고심도는 보험금청구자료의 한계상 풍속에 따른 사고심도로 모델링이 불가하여 보험금청구자료의 평균사고심도로 모델링하였다. 사고빈도는 주택, 일반, 공장을 사업장 규모에 따라 4가지 위험집단으로 분류하여 모델링하였다. 사고빈도는 Weibull CDF보다 Gumbel CDF를 이용하여 모델링하는 것이 더욱 효과적인 것으로 나타났다. 현 취약도 모델링과 과거 태풍 시 바람장을 이용하여 보험 포트폴리오의 태풍 위험을 추정하였다. 10억 원 이상의 지급보험금을 유발한 태풍의 경우 지급보험금을 최대 46% 과소 추정하였으며, 최대 137% 과대 추정하는 결과를 나았으며, 이런 정밀도는 AIR사의 CAT 모델링과 유사한 수준으로 평가되었다.
Abstract
In the study we work a wind vulnerability modelling using typhoon claims. The claims include only the incidents by strong winds at typhoons of 13 in period of 2009-2013. Most incidents occurred on 10-min wind speeds less than 30 m/s. The vulnerability modelling has done as decomposing it into claim severity and claim ratio. The claim severity is modeled as a mean severity of the claims because of a limited amount of data. The claim ratio is modeled for the 4 risk groups, divided by size of business, to the residential, commercial, and industrial individually. It shows that the modelling claim ratio with Weibull CDF (Cumulative Distribution Function) is more efficient than doing with Gumbel CDF. Typhoon risks of a portfolio are estimated with the present typhoon vulnerability modelling and the historical wind fields. For the typhoons having caused losses more than ￦ 1 billion the losses are underestimated by 46% and overestimated by 137% at most. The accuracy of the modelling is evaluated to the level of the AIR CAT modelling.
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