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공기괴 궤적분석을 이용한 한반도 인근 화산분화에 의한 대기질 Worst-case 선정에 관한 연구

Study on Air Quality Worst-case Scenarios due to Volcanic Eruption near The Korean Peninsula using Trajectory Analysis

이승수|박재은|김유정|선우영|김도윤
한국풍공학회|2016.03|한국풍공학회지 (Journal of the Wind Engineering Institute of Korea)|제20권 제1호|pp. 19-28

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참고문헌

키워드

군집분석GISCluster analysis화산HYSPLITVolcano궤적분석Worst-case scenarioTrajectory analysis

초록

한반도 인근 화산분화에 의한 대기질 Worst-case 시나리오 선정을 위해 HYSPLIT을 이용하여 공기괴 이동을 분석하였다. 백두산, 아소산 및 다루마에산에서의 분화를 가정하여 3시간 간격으로 91일 간 (2010년 4월 1일 - 6월 30일) 공기괴(air parcel) 전진궤적 (forward-trajectory)을 생성하였다. 생성궤적에 대해 군집분석, GIS 분석을 수행하였으며 분석결과를 토대로 각 화산의 분화사례일을 대기질 측면의 중요도로서 평가하여 다섯 단계로 분류하였다. 제시된 사례일 중 대기질 측면에서의 중요도가 가장 높은 분화사례일(class A)은 백두산 5월 13일, 6월 2일, 6월 22일, 아소산 4월 9일, 6월 13일, 6월 17일, 6월 24일, 다루마에산 5월 29일로 평가되었다. 또한 시나리오 선정에 있어 모사기간 및 도메인 설정에 고려할 수 있는 한국상공 진입 공기괴 궤적의 시공간적 분포 및 이동 패턴 분석결과를 분석대상 화산별로 제시하였다.

Abstract

Air parcel trajectory analysis was conducted using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT4) model for determination of volcanic eruption worst-case scenarios. Forward trajectories were calculated every 3 hours for 91 days (1 April - 30 June, 2010) and the trajectories were initiated at 3 volcanoes, Mt. Baekdu, Mt. Aso and Mt. Tarumae. Cluster analysis and GIS analysis were conducted to classify selected scenarios into 5 classes, considering the air quality impact. The most important dates for volcanic eruption impact were 5/13, 6/2, 6/22 for Mt. Baekdu, 4/9, 6/13, 6/17, 6/24 for Mt. Aso, and 5/29 for Mt. Tarumae and these were classified as class A, with the highest risk of incurring severe air pollution episodes in the receptor area. In addition, we analyzed the spatio-temporal distributions of the trajectories in the receptor area to help determine the period and domain of the volcanic eruption worst-case scenarios.

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