Lagrangian 모형을 이용한 화산재 확산 수치해석 - Part I. 과거 분화 사례에 대한 분석 -
Numerical Analysis of Volcanic Ash Dispersion using Lagrangian Models - Part I. Case Studies on Historic Eruptions -
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초록
입자의 확산을 모사하는 Lagrangian 기반의 HYSPLIT과 PUFF 모형을 이용하여 화산재의 확산 해석을 수행하였다. 미국의 스퍼와 리다우트 화산은 각각 1992년과 2009년에 폭발성 분화가 발생하여 화산재가 광범위하게 확산되었다. 이 때 발생한 공기 중에 부유하는 미세입자와 퇴적되는 화산재로 인해 공항이 폐쇄되고 통신 교란이 발생하는 피해가 발생하였다. 또한, 인도네시아의 켈루트화산은 최근까지 활발한 활동을 하고 있으며 1919년과 2014년의 대분화로 인해 인명피해가 속출하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 입자확산 모형을 이용하여 이와 같이 화산재로 인해 피해가 발생하는 영향범위와 경로를 분석하였다. 수치 계산의 신뢰성을 평가하기 위해서 다중 수치 모형으로 예측된 화산재의 확산 범위와 실측치에 의한 확산 경로를 비교하여 검증하였다. 또한, 화산재가 영향을 미치는 범위를 평가한 결과 HYSPLIT과 PUFF 모형의 확산 분포는 70% 내외로 일치하는 것을 확인하였다.
Abstract
In this study, the analysis of volcanic ash dispersion have been carried out using HYSPLIT and PUFF for historic eruptions, both of which are numerical dispersion models based on Lagrangian particle-trajectory method. Three cases were investigated, which are Spurr volcano in 1992, Redoubt volcano in 2009 and Kelud volcano in 2014. These incidents caused a wide range of damage including closures of major airports and disruption of communication by airborne ash and deposition. In particular, eruption from Kelud volcano in Indonesia even caused huge losses of life in 1919 and 2014. This study focuses on the comparison of computed results of ash dispersion between models and observation in order to establish the foundations of numerical approach to estimate the volcanic ash related disasters. The results show that the computed dispersion agrees well with observational data and the two models reveal about 70% of similarity in the spatial range of the dispersion.
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