울릉도 풍력자원평가를 위한 지상관측자료 평가

Abstract

Since Ulleungdo, which is a steep complex terrain island, has very strong local wind characteristics, the validity of surface observation data should be evaluated first when applying surface observation data to wind resource assessment. In this paper, the local meteorological representations of surface observation data were evaluated by analyzing the correlation between the reanalysis data or the mesoscale numerical weather prediction results as synoptic meteorological input data versus the surface observation data in Ulleungdo. We also estimated how consistent the predicted results of the synoptic meteorological data are with the surface observation data when computational flow analysis is performed to account precisely for flow deformation caused by the topography. The prediction error of micrositing is confirmed to increase as the terrain becomes complex, which is expressed as terrain complexity indices. The surface observation data of Ulleungdo showed strong local wind characteristics, except the data of Hyunpori where a highrise meteorological tower was erected. Since computational fluid dynamics would not simulate the wind system effect even if the terrain complexity is accurately considered, the uncertainty of wind resource assessment relying on surface observation data is deemed considerably large. Therefore, installing a high-rise meteorological tower in the candidate wind farm site is inevitable in accordance with the IEC 61400-12 guideline.