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서아프리카 지역 군사 쿠데타 고찰: 말리, 기니를 중심으로

Understanding Military Coups in West Africa: Focusing on Mali and Guinea

김동석
한국사회역사학회 (Korean Association Of Socio-Historical Studies)|2022.06|담론201 (Discourse 201)|제25권 제2호|pp. 7-32|DOI 10.17789/discou.2022.25.2.001

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참고문헌

키워드

쿠데타서아프리카West Africacoup말리MaliGuinea기니민주 정부democratic government
주제분류사회학

초록

본 논문은 최근 서아프리카 지역 쿠데타를 말리, 기니 사례를 중심으로 고찰하고자 한다. 2020년대 말리에서 첫 번째 쿠데타로 민선 정부가 전복되고 과도 정부가 들어섰다. 이후 두 번째 쿠데타로 과도 정부 내 쿠데타 주동세력의 입지가 강화되었다. 기니에서는 군부 인사들이 장기 집권을 시도하던 민선 지도자를 축출하고 권력을 장악하였다. 말리, 기니의 쿠데타는 민주 정부의 실정에 대한 실망감 및 분노, 군부의 불만 증대와 같은 국내적 요인과 국제사회의 쿠데타 용인에 대한 기대, 강대국들 간 세력 다툼과 같은 외부적 요인이 복합적으로 작용하여 발생하였다. 장기적으로 말리, 기니 군부 지도자들은 민간에 권력을 이양할 것으로 보인다. 하지만 이 과정에서 군부 내 혹은 군부와 민간 지도자들 간 갈등이 폭력으로 분출될 가능성이 있다. 하지만 말리, 기니 등에서의 쿠데 타가 서아프리카 지역 전반으로의 쿠데타 확산 및 이로 인한 민주주의 퇴보로 이어지지 않을 전망이다.

Abstract

This article addresses recent coup d’états in West Africa, focusing on Mali and Guinea. In the 2020s, in Mali the first coup overthrew a democratically elected government and installed the interim government. The second coup reinforced the influence of coup leaders in the interim government. In Guinea, some military officers staged a coup, deposing a democratic leader who had attempted to prolong his hold on political power. Coups of Mali and Guinea derive from the combination of domestic factors such as disillusion and anger towards the democratic government and military’s disaffection as well as foreign factors such as immunity from coup and powerful states’ competition. In the long term, coup leaders in Mali and Guinea will hand over power to civilians. In this process, disputes between military and civilian leaders or inside the military are likely to explode into violence. However, Malian and Guinea coups will not spread coups nor generate the regression of democracy in West Africa.

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