포식자－피식자 모델을 이용하여 기후변화가논습지를 이용하는 조류 개체군 동태에 미치는 영향 예측
Effects of Climate-Changes on Patterns of Seasonal Changes in Bird Population in Rice Fields using a Prey-Predator Model
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초록
BACKGROUND: It is well known that rice-fields canprovide excellent foraging places for birds includingseasonal migrants, wintering, and breeding and hence thehigh biodiversity of rice-fields may be expected. However,how environmental change including climate-changes onlife-history and population dynamics in birds on rice-fieldshas not been fully understood. In order to investigate howclimate-change affects population migratory patterns andmigration timing, I modeled a population dynamics of birdsin rice-fields over a whole year. METHODS AND RESULTS: I applied the Lotka-Volterraequation to model the population dynamics of birds thathave been foraging/visiting rice-fields in Korea. The simplemodel involves the number of interspecific individuals andtemperature, and the model parameters are periodic in timeas the biological activities related to the migration,wintering and reproduction are seasonal. As results, firstlythere was a positive relationship between the variation ofseasonal population sizes and temperature change. Secondly, the reduced lengths of season were negativelyrelated to the population size. Overall, the effects of thedifference of lengths of season on seasonal populationdynamics were higher than the effects of seasonaltemperature change. CONCLUSION(S): Climate change can alter populationdynamics of birds in rice-fields and hence the variation mayaffect the fitness, such as reproduction, survival andmigration. The unstable balances of population dynamics inbirds using paddy rice field as affected by climate changecan reduce the population growth and species diversity inrice fields. The results suggest that the agriculturalproduction is partly affected by the unstable balance ofpopulation in birds using rice-fields.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: It is well known that rice-fields canprovide excellent foraging places for birds includingseasonal migrants, wintering, and breeding and hence thehigh biodiversity of rice-fields may be expected. However,how environmental change including climate-changes onlife-history and population dynamics in birds on rice-fieldshas not been fully understood. In order to investigate howclimate-change affects population migratory patterns andmigration timing, I modeled a population dynamics of birdsin rice-fields over a whole year. METHODS AND RESULTS: I applied the Lotka-Volterraequation to model the population dynamics of birds thathave been foraging/visiting rice-fields in Korea. The simplemodel involves the number of interspecific individuals andtemperature, and the model parameters are periodic in timeas the biological activities related to the migration,wintering and reproduction are seasonal. As results, firstlythere was a positive relationship between the variation ofseasonal population sizes and temperature change. Secondly, the reduced lengths of season were negativelyrelated to the population size. Overall, the effects of thedifference of lengths of season on seasonal populationdynamics were higher than the effects of seasonaltemperature change. CONCLUSION(S): Climate change can alter populationdynamics of birds in rice-fields and hence the variation mayaffect the fitness, such as reproduction, survival andmigration. The unstable balances of population dynamics inbirds using paddy rice field as affected by climate changecan reduce the population growth and species diversity inrice fields. The results suggest that the agriculturalproduction is partly affected by the unstable balance ofpopulation in birds using rice-fields.
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