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기후변화에 따른 Phthorimaea absoluta (=Tuta absoluta)의 한국 내 잠재 서식지 예측

Prediction of potential habitat of Phthorimaea absoluta (=Tuta absoluta) under climate change in Korea

박정준|홍진솔|조기종|박태철|엄소은|정지원
한국환경생물학회 (Korean Society Of Environmental Biology)|2024.12|환경생물 (Korean Journal of Environmental Biology)|제42권 제4호|pp. 557-573|DOI 10.11626/KJEB.2024.42.4.557

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참고문헌

키워드

land coverclimate changeinvasive speciesPhthorimaea absolutaShared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)

초록

환경 변화는 침입생물의 유입, 확산, 정착에 중요한 영향을 미친다. 본 연구는 신규 침입해충 P. absoluta의 국내 정착 가능성 변화를 분석하기 위해 기후와 토지피복 변화라는 주요 환경 요인을 종합적으로 고려하여 서식 적합도를 예측하였다. 먼저, 전 지구적 출현 데이터를 기반으로 MaxEnt 모형을 구축하여 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 국내 서식 적합도 변화를 모의하였다. 이후, 토지피복 변화에 따른 농경지 내 P. absoluta의 잠재 위험 지역 (Potential Risk Area, PRA)을 분석하였다. 연구 결과, 모든 SSP 시나리오 조합에서 SSP1과 3의 2055s PRA는 각각 47.85%, 48.62%로 유사했으나, 2085s에 39.28%, 28.52%로 크게 감소하였다. 이러한 결과는 기후변화와 토지피복 변화가 진행됨에 따라 P. absoluta의 잠재 위험 면적이 근 미래에 가장 심각할 것임을 시사한다. 따라서, 본 연구는 전국적으로 확산 중인 P. absoluta의 새로운 지역으로의 침입 및 확산을 방지하기 위한 지속적인 모니터링과 관리의 필요성을 강조하며, 효과적인 방제 및 관리 전략 개발을 위한 과학적 근거를 제공한다. 또한, 본 연구는 기후변화와 토지피복 변화가 침입생물 관리에 미치는 영향을 종합적으로 평가함으로써, 미래 기후 시나리오 하에서 P. absoluta의 확산 및 위험성을 예측할 수 있는 기초자료를 제시하였다.

Abstract

Environmental changes play a significant role in the introduction, dispersal, and establishment of invasive species. This study aims to predict the habitat suitability of the newly invasive pest P. absoluta in South Korea by thoroughly considering key environmental factors, including climate and land cover changes. First, the MaxEnt model was developed to simulate changes in habitat suitability using global occurrence data and future climate change scenarios. Subsequently, potential risk areas (PRAs) for P. absoluta within agricultural regions were analyzed based on land cover changes. The results indicated that under all Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario combinations, the PRA for SSP1 and SSP3 in 2055 were similar, with values of 47.85% and 48.62%, respectively. However, by 2085, these areas showed a marked decrease to 39.28% and 28.52%, respectively. These findings suggest that the PRA for P. absoluta is expected to be most critical in the near future as climate and land-use changes continue to progress. This study emphasizes the urgent need for ongoing monitoring and management to prevent further invasion and spread of P. absoluta into new regions of South Korea. Additionally, it provides scientific evidence to support the development of effective control and management strategies. By thoroughly evaluating the impact of climate and land cover changes on invasive species management, this research presents a foundational framework for predicting the spread and risks of P. absoluta under future climate scenarios.

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