넙다리뼈에 대한 방사성 탄소동위원소 분석을 통한 백골화 골격의 사망연도 추정
Death Year Estimation of Skeletal Remains by Radiocarbon Dating of Femur
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The identification for skeletal remains is one of roles of forensic medicine. For this purpose, dating, i.e., estimating the birth year and death year is expected as useful, however has not yet been practically applied. A dating method using radiocarbon analysis was recently introduced and related studies have been reported. In this study, we tried to confirm the applicability of radiocarbon dating for the identification of skeletal remains and to develop formulas to estimate the death year. Thirty-four autopsy cases from the National Forensic Service, from December 2014 to July 2022, with known death year were selected for inclusion. For each case, two samples were taken: the spongy bone of the femur head, and the compact bone of the femur midshaft. For each sample, radiocarbon analysis was carried out and the corresponding femur year were calculated using the bomb peak curve. The differences between the femur year and the death year were determined and analyzed on the influence of variables. A formula for estimating the death year was developed and the applicability of the formula was determined. The results showed that the difference between death year and femur head year was 14.2 years on average. In male, the difference between death year and femur head year increased with age, however, it did not show any difference according to age in female. The estimation formula of death year was as follows: (In male) Death year=0.993×(Femur head year)+0.288×(Age)+15.061, (In female) Death year=0.769×(Femur head year)-0.218×(Age)+489.676. The formula for male had relatively high explanatory power (adjusted R2=0.710), however, the formula for female had low explanatory power (adjusted R2=0.588). This study is meaningful because it is the largest single study of its kind, to date, and uses specific and identical skeleton (femur head/femur midshaft) to increase the accuracy of the death year estimation. We expect that the results of this study will be supplemented through additional research in the future.
Abstract
The identification for skeletal remains is one of roles of forensic medicine. For this purpose, dating, i.e., estimating the birth year and death year is expected as useful, however has not yet been practically applied. A dating method using radiocarbon analysis was recently introduced and related studies have been reported. In this study, we tried to confirm the applicability of radiocarbon dating for the identification of skeletal remains and to develop formulas to estimate the death year. Thirty-four autopsy cases from the National Forensic Service, from December 2014 to July 2022, with known death year were selected for inclusion. For each case, two samples were taken: the spongy bone of the femur head, and the compact bone of the femur midshaft. For each sample, radiocarbon analysis was carried out and the corresponding femur year were calculated using the bomb peak curve. The differences between the femur year and the death year were determined and analyzed on the influence of variables. A formula for estimating the death year was developed and the applicability of the formula was determined. The results showed that the difference between death year and femur head year was 14.2 years on average. In male, the difference between death year and femur head year increased with age, however, it did not show any difference according to age in female. The estimation formula of death year was as follows: (In male) Death year=0.993×(Femur head year)+0.288×(Age)+15.061, (In female) Death year=0.769×(Femur head year)-0.218×(Age)+489.676. The formula for male had relatively high explanatory power (adjusted R2=0.710), however, the formula for female had low explanatory power (adjusted R2=0.588). This study is meaningful because it is the largest single study of its kind, to date, and uses specific and identical skeleton (femur head/femur midshaft) to increase the accuracy of the death year estimation. We expect that the results of this study will be supplemented through additional research in the future.
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