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AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE KOREAN MONETARY POLICY SINCE THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE CRISIS

조성훈
한국경제학회 (The Korean Economic Association)|2007.12|The Korean Economic Review|제23권 제2호|pp. 329-352

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of monetary policy on stabilizing inflation and output for the post-crisis era. The paper examines whether a sizable moderation in inflation, observed in this period, is consistent with the monetary policy of the Bank of Korea through its interest rate channel. Although the inflation rates have been within the inflation target range of the central bank for the post-crisis era, we find that such an empirical fact is not supported by the interest rate feedback rule of the central bank (i.e., the policy rule does not seem to have stabilized inflation). Instead, the BOK has focused more on moderating fluctuations in real activities. Our empirical findings are robust to different models, estimation methods and alternative measures of data. However, the results are significantly different across the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods, implying that the Korean economy had experienced a structural change. Consequently, this paper argues that an empirical investigation with data, including the financial crisis, may question its validity and may not characterize the current Korean economy.

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