태풍 모의를 통한 해상 설계풍속 추정
Extreme Offshore Wind Estimation using Typhoon Simulation
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참고문헌
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초록
극치해상 풍속 산정을 위해서는 장기 관측자료가 반드시 필요하다. 그러나, 해상에서의 장기 관측 자료를 확보하기란 거의 불가능하다. 따라서 해상 바람 조건을 분석하기 위해 태풍 모의 기법이 널리 이용되어 진다. 본 연구에서는 Holland(1980) model을 이용하여 1978년부터 2012년까지(35년간) 한반도 서해안 지역에 영향을 미친 총 74개 태풍에 대해서 태풍 모의를 하였다. 그 결과, BOLAVEN(1215)에 의한 HeMOSU-1의 100 m 고도 최대풍속은49.02 m/s로서 35년간 가장 영향을 크게 미친 태풍으로 나타났다. 한편, 모의 결과는 서해안 지역에 설치 된 HeMOSU-1의 관측치(MUIFA, BOLAVEN, SANBA)와 비교하였다. 그리고 재현주기별 극치 풍속을 예측하기 위해 한반도 서해안 4개 지점(HeMOSU-1, 군산, 목포, 제주)의 35개 연 최대 풍속 자료에 Gumbel 분포형을 적용하였다. HeMOSU-1 지점의 해상 100 m 높이에서의 50년 빈도 설계풍속 값은 50 m/s, 100년 빈도 설계풍속 값은 54.92 m/s로 나타났으며, BOLAVEN 풍속이 50년 빈도 풍속에 해당되었다.
Abstract
Long-term measured wind data are absolutely necessary to estimate extreme offshore wind speed. However, it is almost impossible to collect offshore wind measured data. Therefore, typhoon simulation is widely used to analyze offshore wind conditions. In this paper, 74 typhoons which affected the western sea of Korea during 1978-2012(35 years) were simulated using Holland(1980) model. The results showed that 49.02 m/s maximum wind speed affected by BOLAVEN(1215) at 100 m heights of HeMOSU-1 (Herald of Meteorological and Oceanographic Special Unit - 1) was the biggest wind speed for 35 years. Meanwhile, estimated wind speeds were compared with observed data for MUIFA, BOLAVEN, SANBA at HeMOSU-1. And to estimate extreme wind speed having return periods, extreme analysis was conducted by assuming 35 annual maximum wind speed at four site(HeMOSU-1, Gunsan, Mokpo and Jeju) in western sea of the Korean Peninsular to be Gumbel distribution. As a results, extreme wind speed having 50-year return period was 50 m/s, that of 100-year was 54.92 m/s at 100 m heights, respectively. The maximum wind speed by BOLAVEN could be considered as a extreme winds having 50-year return period.
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