지방세입과 지방세출 간의 인과관계 분석
The Causal Relationship between Local Revenue and Local Expenditure
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The purpose of this study is to examine causal relations between local revenue and its source and local expenditure of the Korean local governments from 1970 to 2006, and further to propose the theoretical analysis of them. There exists a long-run equilibrium relationship through which local revenue leads local expenditure by adjustment process(revenue→expenditure). Among revenue sources, both tax revenue and non-tax revenue are cointegrated with local expenditure, in which local tax revenue and non-tax revenue leads expenditure change unidirectly toward a long-run equilibrium. But transfer resourses are not cointegrated with local expenditure. And there exist both short-term and long-run bidirectional causality between government grants and local expenditure, and also there exsist unidirectional short-run causality running from local grant tax to local expenditure. This analysis suggests that local finance in Korea has been operated in a stable manner even though adjustment is generally slow under the control of central government and that in part, revenue-expenditure hypothesis is also applied in the case of intergovernmental transfer with demand from local governments reflected.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to examine causal relations between local revenue and its source and local expenditure of the Korean local governments from 1970 to 2006, and further to propose the theoretical analysis of them. There exists a long-run equilibrium relationship through which local revenue leads local expenditure by adjustment process(revenue→expenditure). Among revenue sources, both tax revenue and non-tax revenue are cointegrated with local expenditure, in which local tax revenue and non-tax revenue leads expenditure change unidirectly toward a long-run equilibrium. But transfer resourses are not cointegrated with local expenditure. And there exist both short-term and long-run bidirectional causality between government grants and local expenditure, and also there exsist unidirectional short-run causality running from local grant tax to local expenditure. This analysis suggests that local finance in Korea has been operated in a stable manner even though adjustment is generally slow under the control of central government and that in part, revenue-expenditure hypothesis is also applied in the case of intergovernmental transfer with demand from local governments reflected.
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