경제·핵무력 병진노선과 북한의 군사 분야 변화

Abstract

To build a powerful socialist nation, North Korea has adopted the dual policy of nuclear and economic development (‘Byongjin roson’) as the strategic line for the Kim Jong Un era. In addition, in 2014, the third year since Kim’s inauguration, it has begun full-fledged efforts for economic development and improvement of the people’s livelihood. When putting forward the new ‘dual-line policy,’ North Korea rationalized it by stipulating that military use of nuclear power is conducive to building its economy. Kim Jong-un has been implementing policies and projects that support his way of government, going beyond mere consolidation of power and stabilization of his regime to focus on forming favorable conditions for the North’s survival in and outside the region. The dual-policy of construction of nuclear forces and development of the economy is the fundamental strategic line which justifies, rationalizes and guides such efforts. In terms of the military, North Korea will have to shift the focus of its military strategies and administration from conventional forces to asymmetrical power such as nuclear weapons and limited scope of forces such as the air and anti-air forces. The Kim Il Sung regime adopted a dual-line policy of national defense and economic development, and Kim Jong Il followed the legacy by proposing military-first economic policy. Such policies, however, have failed so far due to their inherent dilemma between security and economy, as they suffer from inherent structural flaws. Despite repeated failure of these dual-line policies, the Kim Jong Un regime came up with a new version of the dual-line policy, emphasizing that the new version is the direct successor of the previous strategic lines. Then, we need to see whether the new ‘Byungjin roson’ shares the same structural flaws of the previous versions in terms of economic development, or if it is different from the previous strategic lines in any way. If any difference exists, careful investigation into how the new ‘Byungjin roson’ will be implemented will provide a measure with which we can predict the future of the Kim Jong Un regime.