행운과 불운이 모험적 의사결정에 미치는 효과에 대한 탐색적 연구: 확률적 틀 효과의 관점에서
The Exploratory Study for the Effect of Good and Bad Luck on Risky Decision: Perspective of Probabilistic Framing Effect
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본 연구는 탐색적 수준에서 행운이 확률적 틀에 의한 의사결정 경향을 강화시키고, 불운이 이러한 경향을 약화시킨다는 예측을 검증한 것이다. 이를 위해 운 경험(행운 vs. 불운 vs. 통제) × 확률적 틀(높음 vs. 낮음)을 조작한 후, 사람들의 확률적 틀에 의한 의사결정 경향성에 차이가 있는지 관찰하였다. 결과적으로 행운 경험은 확률적 틀에 의한 의사결정 경향을 증가시키고, 불운 경험은 확률적 틀에 의한 의사결정을 약화시키는 이원상호작용을 관찰할 수 있었다(그림 1). 본 연구를 시작으로 확률적 틀 이외의 맥락적 틀(e.g., 긍정 vs. 부정; 맥락에 부합하는 손실 vs. 맥락과 무관한 손실)에 대한 의사결정에도 행운과 불운이 어떻게 영향을 미치는지 확인하는 연구들이 이어지길 기대한다.
Abstract
Present research was carried out on the level of exploration to verify that good luck increases probabilistic framing effect but bad luck decrease the effect. And we organized an experiment that designed experience of luck (good luck vs. bad luck vs. control) × probabilistic frame (high vs. low) and observed whether people response based on probabilistic frame or not. As a result, we observed the two-way interaction where experience of good luck increased probabilistic framing effect, while experience of bad luck decreased the effect (Figure 1). We expect to see more studies of contextual framing effect besides probabilistic frame (e.g., positive vs. negative; loss related to context vs. loss irrelevant to context).
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