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FDI와 경제성장: 분해된 제도의 역할

Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: The Role of Unbundled Institutions

서한석
한국사회경제학회 (Korean Association for Political Economy)|2011.11|사회경제평론 (The Review of Social & Economic Studies)|제37권 제1호|pp. 83-119

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키워드

경제성장FDI외국인 직접투자Economic growth제도 JEL No. F23P10P17Institution JEL No. F23
주제분류경제학

초록

FDI가 경제성장에 기여하지만 그 과정은 자동적인 것이 아니라, 어떤조건이 충족되어야만 한다. 본 논문은 FDI가 경제성장에 영향을 미치는조건으로서 제도가 어떠한 역할을 하는지 Rodrik의 분류방법에 따라 시장조성제도, 시장규제제도, 시장안정화제도, 시장복지제도 그리고 메타제도인 민주주의등 4가지로 분해해서 1995-2009년 기간의 개발도상국 132개국을 횡단면 분석한다. FDI의 내생성을 고려해서 2-SLS로 추정한 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째 모든 제도의 경우 FDI는 직접적으로 경제성장에 유의한양의 영향을 미치지 못한다. 둘째, 제도와 FDI의 상호관계를 보면 시장안정화제도, 시장복지제도, 그리고 민주주의가 발달할 수록 FDI는 경제성장에 유의한 양의 영향을 미치고 있는 반면 시장규제제도와 시장조성제도의경우는 유의한 음의 값을 갖거나 비유의적이다. 이러한 결과가 시사하는바는 경제성장을 촉진시키기 위해 FDI를 유치하기 위한 여러 정책들이 자동적으로 의도한 바람직스러운 결과를 초래하는 것이 아니며, FDI의 유치가 경제성장에 기여하기 위해서는 시장안정화제도, 시장복지제도와 민주주의의 발달이 전제되어야 한다는 점이다. 반면 시장조성제도와 시장규제제도는 FDI와의 상호보완성을 확인할 수 없었다.

Abstract

It is often argued that FDI inflow does not automatically lead to economic growth in host countries i.e., the growth effect of FDI is dependent upon different absorptive capacities. In this paper, using Rodrik's four-way partition of institutions;market creating, market regulatory institution, market stabilizaing and market legitimizing institution, we shed light on the systemic link between FDI, unbundled institutions and economic growth in a cross-section of 132 countries. Our empirical results, based on the 2-stage least square estimation to fix endogeneity problem reveal that FDI by itself has no direct effect on economic growth. Instead, the effect of FDI is contingent on the quality of market stabilizing, market legitimizing and democratic institutions in the host countries while market creating and regulatory institution do not seem to matter. Implication is to boost economic growth by attracting FDI better market stabilizing, market legitimizing and democratic institutions are required rather than tax and labor policies.

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