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A Kaldorian Macro-Dynamic Model with Speculative Shocks in the Housing Market

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This paper proposes a macro-dynamic model to examine the real effects of speculative shocks in the housing market. We have defined speculative housing demand following Keynes and Minsky. Our macro-model shows two negative impacts of speculative housing demand and of interest payment: households’ consumption becomes lowered and firms’ profits also fall. If there are continuous positive shocks, the house prices become so high, then a steady state equilibrium would disappear and the whole economy goes to the bubble.

Abstract

This paper proposes a macro-dynamic model to examine the real effects of speculative shocks in the housing market. We have defined speculative housing demand following Keynes and Minsky. Our macro-model shows two negative impacts of speculative housing demand and of interest payment: households’ consumption becomes lowered and firms’ profits also fall. If there are continuous positive shocks, the house prices become so high, then a steady state equilibrium would disappear and the whole economy goes to the bubble.

참고문헌 (10)

  1. Aoki, K., "House Prices, Consumption, and Monetary Policy: a Financial Accelerator Approach", Journal of Financial Intermediation, 13, pp.414~435 (2004)
  2. Goodhart, C., "Financial Regulation in General Equilibrium", paper presented to a symposium by Bank of Korea (2012)
  3. Hein, E., "Harrodian Instability and the ‘Normal Rate’ of Capacity Utilization in Kaleckian Models of Distribution and Growth-a Survey", Metroeconomica, 63(1), pp.139~169 (2011)
  4. Hein, E., "Some Instability Puzzles in Kaleckian Models of Growth and Distribution: a Critical Survey", Cambridge Journal of Economics, 35, pp.587~612 (2011)
  5. Iacoviello, M., "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycles", American Economic Review, 95(1), pp.739~764 (2005)
  6. Iacoviello, M., "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE model", American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2, pp.125~164 (2010)
  7. Lavoie, M., "Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth", pp.132~156 (2010), E. Elgar
  8. Lavoie, M., "Similarities and Discrepancies in Post-Keynesian and Marxist Theories of Investment: a Theoretical and Empirical Investigation", International Review of Applied Economics, 18(2), pp.127~149 (2004)
  9. Skott, P., "Theoretical and Empirical Shortcomings of the Kaleckian Investment Function", Metroeconomica, 63(1), pp.109~138 (2012)
  10. Tinbergen, Jan, "On the Theory of Economy Policy" (1952), North Holland Publishing Company

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