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Tests of the Null of Cointegration Using Integrated and Modified OLS Residuals

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초록

This study develops a KPSS (Kwiatkowski et al., 1992)-type cointegration test utilizing residuals from integrated and modified ordinary least squares (IMOLS) estimation. The test statistic, denoted by KPSS^{Fb} has a pivotal null limit distribution under fixed-b assumption. The proposed test demonstrates reasonable performance in terms of size and power when the Andrews' AR(1) plug-in data-dependent (DD) bandwidth is employed and fixed-$b$ critical values are used. Additionally, two modified IMOLS residuals are proposed to obtain alternative data-dependent bandwidths. In the simulation experiment, these bandwidths deliver improved power properties for the proposed test.

Abstract

This study develops a KPSS (Kwiatkowski et al., 1992)-type cointegration test utilizing residuals from integrated and modified ordinary least squares (IMOLS) estimation. The test statistic, denoted by KPSS^{Fb} has a pivotal null limit distribution under fixed-b assumption. The proposed test demonstrates reasonable performance in terms of size and power when the Andrews' AR(1) plug-in data-dependent (DD) bandwidth is employed and fixed-$b$ critical values are used. Additionally, two modified IMOLS residuals are proposed to obtain alternative data-dependent bandwidths. In the simulation experiment, these bandwidths deliver improved power properties for the proposed test.

참고문헌 (17)

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  16. Vogelsang, T. J., "Integrated modified OLS estimation and fixed-b inference for cointegrating regressions", Journal of Econometrics, 178, pp.741~760 (2014)
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