전지구․지역․국지연안 통합 파랑예측시스템 개발을 위한 여름철 태풍시기 풍파성장 파라미터 민감도 분석
Sensitivity Analysis of Wind-Wave Growth Parameter during Typhoon Season in Summer for Developing an Integrated Global/Regional/Coastal Wave Prediction System
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초록
In this study, an integrated wave model from global to coastal scales was developed to improve the operational wave prediction performance of the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). In this system, the wave model was upgraded to the WaveWatch III version 6.07 with the improved parameterization of the source term. Considering the increased resolution of the wind input field and the introduction of the high-performance KMA 5th Supercomputer, the spatial resolution of global and regional wave models has been doubled compared to the operational model. The physical processes and coefficients of the wave model were optimized for the current KMA global atmospheric forecasting system, the Korean Integrated Model (KIM), which is being operated since April 2020. Based on the sensitivity experiment results, the wind-wave growth parameter (βmax) for the global wave model was determined to be 1.33 with the lowest root mean square errors (RMSE). The value of βmax showed the lowest error when applied to regional/coastal wave models for the period of the typhoon season when strong winds occur. Applying the new system to the case of August 2020, the RMSE for the 48-hour significant wave height prediction was reduced by 13.4 to 17.7% compared to the existing KMA operating model. The new integrated wave prediction system plans to replace the KMA operating model after long-term verification.
Abstract
In this study, an integrated wave model from global to coastal scales was developed to improve the operational wave prediction performance of the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). In this system, the wave model was upgraded to the WaveWatch III version 6.07 with the improved parameterization of the source term. Considering the increased resolution of the wind input field and the introduction of the high-performance KMA 5th Supercomputer, the spatial resolution of global and regional wave models has been doubled compared to the operational model. The physical processes and coefficients of the wave model were optimized for the current KMA global atmospheric forecasting system, the Korean Integrated Model (KIM), which is being operated since April 2020. Based on the sensitivity experiment results, the wind-wave growth parameter (βmax) for the global wave model was determined to be 1.33 with the lowest root mean square errors (RMSE). The value of βmax showed the lowest error when applied to regional/coastal wave models for the period of the typhoon season when strong winds occur. Applying the new system to the case of August 2020, the RMSE for the 48-hour significant wave height prediction was reduced by 13.4 to 17.7% compared to the existing KMA operating model. The new integrated wave prediction system plans to replace the KMA operating model after long-term verification.
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