Rising Powers, Offshore Balancers, and Why the US-Korea Alliance is Undergoing Strain
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Why have US-ROK relations undergone tension in the past few years? What impact has China’s rise had in Northeast Asia? In this essay, I argue that although South Korea desires to remain a firm ally of the US, their regional interests are diverging. Indeed, the relations between the US and ROK are fairly smooth: Maintaining the alliance and cooperation over the Iraq war has been excellent. However, their interests diverge in their focus on regional issues and long-term strategies. The bulk of evidence leads to the conclusion that South Korea is making hesitant moves in the direction of diminished United States influence and increased accommodation of China. Although the US remains clearly the most important actor in the region, and no country appears poised to replace it, other East Asian states are increasingly being forced to take China into account in formulating their foreign policies. Furthermore, while the more apocalyptic concerns about the end of the US-ROK alliance will not occur, it does mean that both the US and South Korea need to find a new basis for their relationship, and South Korea needs to find a way to integrate North Korea into the region, and to move beyond shrill nationalism and ultimately to coexist with Japan and China
Abstract
Why have US-ROK relations undergone tension in the past few years? What impact has China’s rise had in Northeast Asia? In this essay, I argue that although South Korea desires to remain a firm ally of the US, their regional interests are diverging. Indeed, the relations between the US and ROK are fairly smooth: Maintaining the alliance and cooperation over the Iraq war has been excellent. However, their interests diverge in their focus on regional issues and long-term strategies. The bulk of evidence leads to the conclusion that South Korea is making hesitant moves in the direction of diminished United States influence and increased accommodation of China. Although the US remains clearly the most important actor in the region, and no country appears poised to replace it, other East Asian states are increasingly being forced to take China into account in formulating their foreign policies. Furthermore, while the more apocalyptic concerns about the end of the US-ROK alliance will not occur, it does mean that both the US and South Korea need to find a new basis for their relationship, and South Korea needs to find a way to integrate North Korea into the region, and to move beyond shrill nationalism and ultimately to coexist with Japan and China