THE FOOD CRISIS IN THE DPRK: PROSPECTS FOR POLICY REFORM
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The desperate food situation that has existed in North Korea since at least 1995 has caused enormous human suffering and has had a devastating impact on the country’s economy. It appears that the last two harvests have been something of an improvement over previous years, but there is still widespread hunger. The World Food Program predicts that there will be many more deaths form malnutrition and related illnesses unless greater levels of food aid are forthcoming. However there are signs of donor fatigue in the international aid community, and the recent admissions by North Korea of the continuation of its nuclear weapons program is making many governments reluctant to give further assistance. This paper considers the evidence, scattered as it is, on the extent and impact of the food crisis, and presents estimates of the extent of food aid still needed. The degree to which this crisis has acted as a catalyst for policy reform in the agricultural and food marketing system, but also more broadly in the economy as a whole, is particularly important. The recent initiatives to introduce more market oriented policy reforms are considered in terms of their effectiveness and their impact on the food situation. It is argued that any temptation to use the current famine as a tool to gain concessions on its nuclear and missile programs should be avoided as it is likely to be counter-productive. It would be more constructive for the international community to engage North Korea through a continuation of food assistance, but in the longer term it is very important to assist in the reconstruction and reform of the agricultural system to allow a greater degree of future self-sufficiency.
Abstract
The desperate food situation that has existed in North Korea since at least 1995 has caused enormous human suffering and has had a devastating impact on the country’s economy. It appears that the last two harvests have been something of an improvement over previous years, but there is still widespread hunger. The World Food Program predicts that there will be many more deaths form malnutrition and related illnesses unless greater levels of food aid are forthcoming. However there are signs of donor fatigue in the international aid community, and the recent admissions by North Korea of the continuation of its nuclear weapons program is making many governments reluctant to give further assistance. This paper considers the evidence, scattered as it is, on the extent and impact of the food crisis, and presents estimates of the extent of food aid still needed. The degree to which this crisis has acted as a catalyst for policy reform in the agricultural and food marketing system, but also more broadly in the economy as a whole, is particularly important. The recent initiatives to introduce more market oriented policy reforms are considered in terms of their effectiveness and their impact on the food situation. It is argued that any temptation to use the current famine as a tool to gain concessions on its nuclear and missile programs should be avoided as it is likely to be counter-productive. It would be more constructive for the international community to engage North Korea through a continuation of food assistance, but in the longer term it is very important to assist in the reconstruction and reform of the agricultural system to allow a greater degree of future self-sufficiency.