서울시 인구구조에 따른 공동주택수요 특성 및 전망

Abstract

This study is to find out the effect of different regional characteristics on housing demand, based on population structure. For this study, Seoul is divided into four sections from the lowest price area to the highest price area(No.1 area~No.4 area) and housing demand is forecasted by housing demand function based on population and population structure change. Housing demand model shows the peak in the age of more than 65 and a potent influence in the 20s to 30s in most areas. In addition, the age of more than 80 still have big demand for housing in Seoul. It means the housing demand of the elderly in Seoul is fairly maintained unlike the whole nation showing similar trend to the United States. Next, regional housing demand from 2010 to 2030 is forecasted by the estimated population through cohort component method. As a result, total demand of housing seems to decrease generally with the different range of decrease by areas. No.1 area with the lowest price and No.4 area with the highest price have the gentle decrease compared to No. 2 and No.3 area with the middle price. It means the housing demand in the area with the price polarization has less decrease. Unlike the trend of total housing demand with decrease, the housing demand per family has increased generally. In detail, No. 1 area shows increase, No. 2 area shows stability, No, 3 area shows instability, and No. 4 area shows decrease with respectable difference by areas. Therefore, regional characteristics and population structure should be considered in the housing demand estimation and supply plan in Seoul and this should be reflected as political level in order that actual housing supply in Seoul should include regional characteristics and trend estimation and proper housing demand plan should be made accordingly.