여러 명목기준지표의 후생평가
Tying the Hands of the Central Bank: Welfare Comparison of Alternative Nominal Anchors
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초록
본 논문은 화폐가 도입된 경기변동모형을 이용, 중앙은행이 세 가지 명목기준지표(가격인플레이션, 명목임금증가율, 통화증가율)를 일정하게 유지할 경우 결과되는 후생수준을 비교한다. 대표적인 가계의 평생효용을 후생의 척도로 이용하며, 모형내 비선형 동학의 후생효과를 고려하기 위해 2차근사해법을 이용하여 모형의 해를 구한다. 고정된 인플레이션 타게팅은 장기 인플레이션율이 높은 경우에만 운용가능하며, 영에 가까운 장기 인플레이션율 하에서는 다른 두 명목지표들을 타게팅하는 것이 운용가능한 인플레이션 타게팅에 비해 더 높은 후생수준을 가져온다. 이는 낮은 장기 인플레이션으로부터 오는 효율성증대 효과가 단기적인 인플레이션 안정화의 후생증대효과보다 크기 때문이다.
Abstract
The performances of three alternative nominal anchors, i.e., price inflation, nominal income growth, and money growth are compared in monetary business cycle model. The representative household's lifetime utility is used as a natural welfare metric, and a quadratic approximate solution method is used to capture the welfare effects of the non-linear dynamics. Strict inflation targeting is a feasible and desirable policy only when the economy has to run high rates of long-run inflation. With the long-run inflation rate close to zero, strict targeting of the other two anchors yields comparably higher welfare level than a feasible inflation targeting, since the efficiency gains from lower long-run inflation outweigh the welfare gains from short-run inflation stabilization.
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