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신기술 제품의 확산에 관한 수요, 공급의 균형확산모형과 실증분석

An Equilibrium Diffusion Model of Demand and Supply of New Product and Empirical Analysis

하태정
기술경영경제학회 (The Korean Society For Technology Management & Economics)|2005.06|기술혁신연구 (JOURNAL OF TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION)|제13권 제1호|pp. 113-139

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주제분류기술정책

초록

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyse the diffusion process of personal computer(PC) in Korea during the 1990‘s. To achieve the goal, five research steps have been done such as the literature survey of diffusion theory, set-up of theoretic equilibrium model of supply and demand, derivation of an equilibrium path using Hamiltonian, and empirical analysis. The empirical analysis has been performed based on that equilibrium path. The results can be summarized as follows: First, technological attribute of diffusing product influences the diffusion speed of product. It has been proven that the size of the network has a significant effect on the diffusion of PC in empirical study. Second, supply factors have an important role in the diffusion process. According to the empirical analysis, decreasing cost of production as a result of technological advance promotes the speed of diffusion. This point seems to be manifest theoretically, but existing empirical models have not included supply factors explicitly. Third, it has been found out that expectation of decreasing cost would influence the speed of diffusion negatively as expected ex ante. Theoretically this result is supported by arbitrage condition of purchasing timing.

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